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DET#6 · National Football Conference
Detroit Lions
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#7 of 32
Elo rating 1575.4 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-04 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 14 vs DAL, 44-30, 2025-12-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 7 at LAR, 34-41, 2025-12-14. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 5 vs PIT, 24-29, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 13 at MIN, 10-23, 2025-12-25. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 at CHI, 19-16, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 9th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 912 graded plays; the defense ranked 14th across 877.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
912 off plays · 877 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.069
Team EPA per play
9th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.010
Team EPA per play allowed
14th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split912/877 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.06974
9th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.166 (3rd)
Success45.5%65
12th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 51.0% (1st)
Explosive9.2%87
5th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 10.3% (3rd)
Dropbacks+0.15984
6th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.242 (3rd)
Rushes-0.07029
23rd of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.075 (3rd)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.01058
14th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.023 (8th)
Success42.8%74
9th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 42.0% (7th)
Explosive8.2%39
20th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.1% (28th)
Dropbacks-0.02268
11th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.000 (7th)
Rushes+0.01016
27th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.067 (16th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.069 · 2024 REG +0.166 · -0.098
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.010 · 2024 REG -0.023 · +0.013
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 912 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Jared Goff34 TD4,564
- 2David Montgomery1 TD3
Rushing yards
- 1Jahmyr Gibbs13 TD1,223
- 2David Montgomery8 TD716
- 3Jared Goff0 TD45
- 4Kalif Raymond0 TD19
- 5Jameson Williams0 TD12
Receiving yards
- 1Amon-Ra St. Brown11 TD1,401
- 2Jameson Williams7 TD1,117
- 3Jahmyr Gibbs5 TD616
- 4Sam LaPorta3 TD489
- 5Kalif Raymond1 TD289
Receptions
- 1Amon-Ra St. Brown17 G117
- 2Jahmyr Gibbs17 G77
- 3Jameson Williams17 G65
- 4Sam LaPorta9 G40
- 5Kalif Raymond15 G24
Total TDs
- 1Jared Goff17 G34
- 2Jahmyr Gibbs17 G18
- 3Amon-Ra St. Brown17 G11
- 4David Montgomery17 G9
- 5Jameson Williams17 G7
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Jared Goff
578 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate73.0
- EPA / play+0.149
- Accuracy +1.6%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.149 EPA/play and 1.6% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Elite
avg rank 6.0
YDS
5th
Total yards
PASS
3rd
Pass yards
RUSH
14th
Rush yards
PTS
2nd
Points
TO
6th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
69% pass · 31% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
389vs 342 yds/GSlight edge
Passing yards
269vs 225 yds/GAbove avg
Rushing yards
120vs 117 yds/GLeague avg
Points scored
32.1vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg
Turnovers
0.70vs 0.90 TO/GAbove avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 6 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 4
Signed WR Kyre Duplessis to a contract.
- May 21
Signed LB Jack Campbell to a four-year contract extension.
- May 20
Signed WR Cedrick Wilson to a contract.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 46
The attack
A. St. Brown
WR · #14
A. Firkser
TE · #86
B. Bartch
G · #78
B. Miller
OT · #76
B. Wright
TE · #89
C. Mays
C · #64
C. Wilson Jr.
WR · #86
C. Mahogany
G · #73
C. Sorsdal
OT · #75
D. Cochran
OT · #77
D. Lovett
WR · #19
G. Manu
OT · #59
G. Dortch
WR · #8
I. TeSlaa
WR · #18
I. Pacheco
RB · #10
J. Small
RB · #26
J. Meeks
WR · #13
J. Saylors
RB · #25
J. Gibbs
RB · #0
J. Williams
WR · #1
J. Goff
QB · #16
J. Scruggs
G · #70
J. Jackson
RB · #38
K. Law
WR · #88
K. Robichaux
RB · #34
L. Borom
OT · #79
L. Keys III
WR · #80
L. Jackson
WR · #11
L. Altmyer
QB · #2
M. Cunningham
WR · #15
M. Miller
G · #63
M. Priestly
OT · #74
M. Niese
G · #62
M. Frazier
G · #71
M. Kitselman
TE · #84
P. Sewell
OT · #58
S. LaPorta
TE · #87
S. McLaughlin
C · #65
S. Vaki
RB · #33
T. Black
WR · #12
T. Ratledge
G · #69
T. Martin
WR · #17
T. Bridgewater
QB · #5
T. Gordon
TE · #82
T. Kennedy
WR · #85
T. Conklin
TE · #83
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A. Brown
CB · #42
A. Hassanein
DE · #99
A. Hutchinson
DE · #97
A. Keanaaina
DT · #60
A. McNeill
DT · #54
A. Lucas
DE · #61
A. Maddox
CB · #29
B. Branch
S · #32
C. Smith
DT · #90
C. Izien
S · #27
C. Clark
S · #36
D.J. Reed
CB · #4
D. Clark
LB · #11
D. Jackson
S · #17
D. Rucker
CB · #43
D. Barnes
LB · #55
D. Moore
DE · #9
D. Wonnum
LB · #98
E. Rakestraw Jr.
CB · #2
E. O'Neill
DE · #66
E. Hunter
LB · #48
J. Campbell
LB · #46
J. Rolder
LB · #41
J. Bachie
LB · #35
K. Abney II
CB · #28
K. Joseph
S · #31
K. Dorsey
CB · #30
L. Onwuzurike
DE · #95
L. Strickland
S · #24
M. Rodriguez
LB · #44
M. Wingo
DT · #94
M. Adams
DE · #96
N. Whiteside
CB · #38
P. Turner
DE · #92
R. Ya-Sin
CB · #23
R. McCreary
CB · #21
S. Gill-Howard
DT · #50
T. Harper
S · #12
T. Nowaske
LB · #53
T. Reeder
LB · #51
T. Williams
DT · #91
T. Lacy
DT · #93
T. West
DT · #52
Special teams · 3
