ARI
0-1
LV
0-0
NFL · Drive chart
5 drives · 3 TD · 1 PuntData via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LV win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
On the call · NFL
7 officials
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Side Judge
Jimmy Buchanan
Back Judge
Todd Prukop
Field Judge
Aaron Santi
Line Judge
Brian Bolinger
Down Judge
Frank LeBlanc
Umpire
Scott Campbell
Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.
QB · live passing line
ESPN leaders · live
J. Brissett
ARI · #7 · QB
K. Cousins
LV · #8 · QB
Recent plays · last 8
ESPN PBP · liveARI · top performer
Jacoby Brissett
· #7
5/5
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
LV · top performer
Kirk Cousins
· #8
5/6
C/A
1
TD
0
INT
Recent swing: 10pp · —
NFL · Box score
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5/5 | 37 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 10/10 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 26 | 0 | 9 | |
| 4 | 19 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 11 | 45 | 0 | 9 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 23 | 0 | 18 | |
| 3 | 22 | 0 | 9 | |
| 1 | 12 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1 | 10 | 1 | 10 | |
| 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | |
| 2 | 7 | 0 | 5 | |
| Team | 10 | 81 | 2 | 18 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 25 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/6 | 50 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3/6 | 35 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8/12 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 61 | 0 | 53 | |
| 3 | 16 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | |
| 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team | 10 | 92 | 0 | 53 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 26 | 0 | 19 | |
| 2 | 21 | 0 | 16 | |
| 2 | 19 | 1 | 13 | |
| 2 | 19 | 0 | 10 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8 | 85 | 1 | 19 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 26 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 29 | 0 | |
| 1 | 22 | 22 | 0 | |
| 1 | 21 | 21 | 0 | |
| Team | 3 | 72 | 29 | 0 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Team | 0/0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Player | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 0 | |
| Team | 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 0 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
126
Total yds
177
45
Rush yds
92
0
TO
0
Team stats
ARI
Away
Stat
LV
Home
126
Total yards
177
45
Rushing yds
92
0
Turnovers
0
2-10
totalPenaltiesYards
7-73
12:18
possessionTime
12:25
Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -2.5
Half-pt below key 3
1.0pt· 6h
Total
41.5
Defensive · -5.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6h
Moneyline
ARI+13043%LV-15561%17· 6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
ARI lead LV 14-7 (5:17 - 2nd). Jacoby Brissett led the way — 5/5 · 44 YDS · 1 TD · 142.9 QBR.
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| LV | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Betting line
LV -2.5·O/U 41.5·ARI +130/LV -155
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
41.5
+2.0 since open
Win probability
LV vs ARI
Period scoring
ARI won 1 · LV won 0
Q1
Q2
Play-by-play · 60 plays
−0.8pp
−1pp
+4pp
+0.8pp
+0.7pp
+2pp
+3pp
−1pp
+2pp
BIG MOMENT
+5pp
−0.6pp
+0.7pp
−1pp
−3pp
+1pp
+2pp
+0.7pp
BIG MOMENT
−7pp
−2pp
−0.8pp
+3pp
+2pp
−5pp
BIG MOMENT
−5pp
−1.0pp
−1pp
−1pp
Team rate stats · season-to-date
nflverse · weekly aggregates
ARI
league avg
LV
23.6
Pts / game
23.5
15.9
349
Yds / game
342
273
256
Pass yds / G
225
195
93
Rush yds / G
117
78
0.9
TO / G
0.9
1.2