NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SA

PHI

43-36

102115

60-19

NBAMon, Apr 6FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -8.5

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Philadelphia 76ers, 115–102.

SA -8.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

26.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	38	16	5-15	4-5	2-4	-6	4	4
J. EmbiidC · #21	39	34	8-19	2-6	16-19	-7	12	1
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	29	5	2-7	0-3	1-1	-11	8	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	40	15	6-16	1-4	2-2	-15	3	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	41	14	6-15	2-7	—	-8	8	3
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-5	0	0
D. BarlowF · #25	16	6	2-3	—	2-2	0	8	0
A. DrummondC · #1	9	5	2-4	0-1	1-1	-6	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	23	5	2-7	1-4	—	-7	2	0
Team		102	34-88	10-31	24-29		48	17
DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, D. Terry, A. Bona, K. Lowry

DNP: T. Watford, M. Beauchamp, J. Walker, D. Terry, A. Bona, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	7	3-6	1-4	—	+12	9	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	16	17	7-11	1-3	2-4	+7	5	1
D. FoxG · #4	27	13	6-12	1-5	0-2	+15	0	4
D. VassellG · #24	30	9	4-9	1-4	—	+2	4	4
S. CastleG · #5	31	19	6-13	1-2	6-6	+9	10	13
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	17	2	1-3	0-2	—	+4	1	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	5	3	1-2	1-2	—	+2	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	25	13	4-14	1-5	4-6	+5	9	1
C. BryantF · #11	13	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-5	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	22	10	4-6	—	2-2	+7	3	1
D. HarperG · #2	28	17	7-11	3-3	—	+7	3	4
Team		115	44-89	11-32	16-22		47	31
DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Mar 4

SA131@

PHI91

Apr 7

PHI102@

SA115today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+29525%

SA-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -8.5↗SpreadBet SA -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 3:10

PHI

J. Embiid

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

34 PTS · 12 REB · 1 AST

S. Castle

Game leader · 31 minTriple-double

19 PTS · 10 REB · 13 AST

How it ended

SA beat PHI 115-102. S. Castle stuffed the line with 19 PTS, 10 REB, and 13 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 35 REB · 16 AST

GS 58

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 13 REB · 1 AST

GS 18

SAstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 28 REB · 24 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 3:10 · 24-22

+9pp→ 35% WP

Joel Embiid · makes 14-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)

PHI1st Quarter · 3:08 · 24-22

+8pp→ 35% WP

Victor Wembanyama · enters the game for Carter Bryant

PHI1st Quarter · 3:08 · 24-22

+7pp→ 29% WP

(03:08) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	28	27	30	17	102
SA	29	33	30	23	115

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · SA won 3

George 11

Wembanyama 13

Embiid 16

Castle 15

Embiid 10

Embiid 40

Maxey 8

Castle 6

PHI

Shooting comparison

PHI

39%

34-88

49%

44-89

32%

10-31

3PT

34%

11-32

83%

24-29

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·19.0
shot clock turnover
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·41.3
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·43.4
Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·52.1
Stephon Castle makes two point shot
PHI 102·SA 115
Q4·55.0
Joel Embiid lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)
·
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·58.7
Dominick Barlow offensive rebound
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:01
VJ Edgecombe misses two point shot
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:06
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:09
De'Aaron Fox misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:27
Tyrese Maxey bad pass turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
·
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:37
(01:37) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [76ers] retain their timeout
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:37
76ers Coach's Challenge
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:37
76ers defensive team rebound
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:40
Keldon Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·1:59
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup (Paul George assists)
·
PHI 102·SA 113
Q4·2:09
Dominick Barlow defensive rebound
PHI 100·SA 113
Q4·2:11
VJ Edgecombe blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 3-foot running layup
·
PHI 100·SA 113
Q4·2:13
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
PHI 100·SA 113
Q4·2:15
Paul George misses two point shot
PHI 100·SA 113
Q4·2:40
Luke Kornet makes 1-foot reverse layup (Stephon Castle assists)
·
PHI 100·SA 113
Q4·2:53
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
PHI 100·SA 111
Q4·2:55
VJ Edgecombe misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 100·SA 111
+0.5pp
Q4·3:07
Dominick Barlow defensive rebound
PHI 100·SA 111
Q4·3:09
Keldon Johnson misses 11-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 100·SA 111
Q4·3:33
Stephon Castle defensive rebound
PHI 100·SA 111
Q4·3:35
Joel Embiid misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 100·SA 111
+1pp
Q4·3:35
Luke Kornet enters the game for Carter Bryant
·
PHI 100·SA 111

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

Home

34-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-89

FG %

10-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

24-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -8.5·O/U 237.5·PHI +295/SA -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Paul GeorgePHI · F
DEFL3.595

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
VJ EdgecombePHI
6.1± 2.7high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR