NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NY

51-28

108105

ATL

45-34

NBAMon, Apr 6FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasATL -1.5

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 108–105. Decided by 3.

NY +1.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	37	22	7-14	4-10	4-4	+10	5	1
K. TownsC · #32	32	21	9-12	2-4	1-1	+2	12	6
J. HartG · #3	31	2	1-3	0-2	—	-3	5	3
M. BridgesG · #25	32	15	7-13	0-2	1-2	+1	5	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	39	30	11-26	3-8	5-7	+7	3	13
Bench
M. RobinsonC · #23	20	8	4-6	—	—	+4	12	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	9	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	-4	2	0
L. ShametG · #44	21	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	-4	1	1
M. McBrideG · #2	20	6	2-6	2-5	—	+2	2	2
Team		108	42-84	11-33	13-17		47	29
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Alvarado, T. Kolek

DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, M. Diawara, A. Hukporti, J. Alvarado, T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	37	12	4-13	2-7	2-2	+10	8	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	41	21	8-19	3-5	2-2	+3	11	5
C. McCollumG · #3	35	17	7-19	3-8	—	-4	3	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	39	36	12-19	7-11	5-5	-4	2	3
D. DanielsG · #5	38	11	4-11	1-3	2-4	+1	12	3
Bench
J. KumingaF · #0	22	5	2-6	0-4	1-2	-2	5	2
M. GueyeF · #18	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	1	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	7	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-6	2	0
T. BradleyC · #13	4	0	0-2	—	—	-2	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	2	3
Team		105	38-95	16-42	13-17		48	23
DNP: C. Kispert, A. Newell, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace

DNP: C. Kispert, A. Newell, C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-2

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+10250%

ATL-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 2:20

J. Brunson

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

30 PTS · 3 REB · 13 AST

ATL

N. Alexander-Walker

Game leader · 39 min30-point game

36 PTS · 2 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

NY beat ATL 108-105. J. Brunson paced them with 30 PTS, 3 REB, 13 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 30 REB · 25 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 18

ATLstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 36 REB · 18 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

8 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 3:35 · 94-97

+14pp→ 39% WP

Dyson Daniels · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 2:20 · 100-100

+17pp→ 47% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 26-foot three pointer (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)

NY4th Quarter · 29.8 · 104-102

+16pp→ 73% WP

Jalen Brunson · makes 18-foot step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	32	21	28	27	108
ATL	31	26	22	26	105

Period scoring

NY won 3 · ATL won 1

Bridges 11

Kuminga 15

Anunoby 5

Alexander-Walker 10

Towns 14

Johnson 9

Brunson 17

Alexander-Walker 11

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

50%

42-84

40%

38-95

33%

11-33

3PT

38%

16-42

76%

13-17

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 108·ATL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 108·ATL 105
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 108·ATL 105
−2pp
Q4·1.2
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 108·ATL 105
+0.6pp
Q4·1.2
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 107·ATL 105
Q4·1.2
Onyeka Okongwu enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye
·
NY 107·ATL 105
Q4·1.2
Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 107·ATL 105
Q4·1.2
Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
NY 106·ATL 105
Q4·1.2
Dyson Daniels personal take foul
NY 106·ATL 105
−1pp
Q4·1.5
Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
NY 106·ATL 105
Q4·1.5
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
NY 106·ATL 105
Q4·1.5
Knicks Full timeout
NY 106·ATL 105
−1pp
Q4·2.2
CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 106·ATL 105
−8pp
Q4·5.4
Jalen Brunson enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 106·ATL 102
Q4·5.4
CJ McCollum enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye
·
NY 106·ATL 102
Q4·5.4
Hawks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
NY 106·ATL 102
+7pp
Q4·5.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 106·ATL 102
+2pp
Q4·5.4
OG Anunoby makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 105·ATL 102
−10pp
Q4·5.4
Mitchell Robinson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 104·ATL 102
Q4·5.4
Landry Shamet enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
NY 104·ATL 102
Q4·5.4
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
NY 104·ATL 102
Q4·5.4
(00:05.4) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
NY 104·ATL 102
+9pp
Q4·5.4
CJ McCollum shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 104·ATL 102
−9pp
Q4·7.6
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 104·ATL 102
−7pp
Q4·10.5
Jalen Johnson misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·ATL 102
−8pp
Q4·29.8
Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 104·ATL 102
−17pp
Q4·51.5
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 102·ATL 102
−2pp
Q4·55.1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 102·ATL 102
−7pp
Q4·1:12
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
NY 102·ATL 102
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Jalen Brunson misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 102·ATL 102
+7pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

42-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-95

FG %

11-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 226.5·NY +102/ATL -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ATL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR