DET
57-22
ORL
43-36
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic held off Detroit Pistons, 123–107.
ORL +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer
Javonte Green
G · #31
17
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
ORL · top performer
Paolo Banchero
F · #5
31
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 19 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-2 | — | -24 | 6 | 2 | |
| 32 | 18 | 7-9 | — | 4-7 | -18 | 9 | 4 | |
| 32 | 17 | 7-14 | 3-7 | — | -13 | 3 | 5 | |
| 31 | 8 | 4-5 | — | — | -18 | 3 | 6 | |
| 34 | 18 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 5-5 | -18 | 2 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 3-5 | — | 2-4 | +8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 17 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 2-3 | +5 | 6 | 2 | |
| 18 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-3 | — | +6 | 2 | 4 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 107 | 42-85 | 10-30 | 13-19 | 35 | 32 | ||
| DNP: T. Harris, C. LeVert | ||||||||
DNP: T. Harris, C. LeVert
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 31 | 10-16 | 1-2 | 10-10 | +23 | 5 | 3 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +27 | 4 | 1 | |
| 18 | 12 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 7-8 | +26 | 3 | 3 | |
| 32 | 25 | 9-17 | 4-7 | 3-5 | +14 | 3 | 1 | |
| 34 | 12 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 2-2 | +30 | 6 | 12 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 9 | 4-6 | — | 1-2 | -12 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 14 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 5-7 | -14 | 1 | 2 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | -9 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 123 | 41-81 | 11-26 | 30-40 | 35 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
49
FG %
51
32
Ast
28
Playoff series
DET wins series 4-3
ORL112@DET101ORL83@DET98DET105@ORL113DET88@ORL94ORL109@DET116DET93@ORL79ORL94@DET116Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
222.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-11854%ORL-10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
222.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 35pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:58
DETJ. Green
GGame leader · 27 min
17 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
ORLP. Banchero
FGame leader · 38 min30-point game
31 PTS · 5 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
ORL beat DET 123-107. P. Banchero paced them with 31 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. ORL outscored the other side 39-27 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ORL vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 65% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 23 REB · 24 AST
GS 62
Bench(5)
37 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST
GS 22
ORLstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
92 PTS · 21 REB · 20 AST
GS 83
Bench(9)
31 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 29
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWendell Carter Jr. · makes free throw 1 of 2
Chaz Lanier · misses 23-foot three point jumper
Anthony Black · makes free throw 1 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 27 | 21 | 31 | 107 |
| ORL | 30 | 39 | 29 | 25 | 123 |
Period scoring
DET won 1 · ORL won 3
Q1
Huerter 8
Black 12
Q2
Duren 13
Black 24
Q3
Jenkins 5
Suggs 7
Q4
Green 11
Bitadze 8
Shooting comparison
49%
42-85
FG
51%
41-81
33%
10-30
3PT
42%
11-26
68%
13-19
FT
75%
30-40
Play-by-play · 495 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·8.7
shot clock turnover
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·32.7
shot clock turnover
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·32.7
Magic offensive team rebound
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·33.4
Noah Penda misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·34.6
Magic offensive team rebound
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·34.6
Paul Reed blocks Alex Morales 's 3-foot driving layup
·
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·55.2
Colin Castleton defensive rebound
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·58.4
Chaz Lanier misses 24-foot three point jumper
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·1:19
Jase Richardson makes driving layup
DET 107·ORL 123
- Q4·1:31
Paul Reed makes 3-foot two point shot
DET 107·ORL 121
- Q4·1:35
Paul Reed offensive rebound
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:37
Ronald Holland II misses two point shot
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:43
Paul Reed offensive rebound
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Noah Penda enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Tolu Smith misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Tolu Smith misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Jase Richardson enters the game for Goga Bitadze
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Alex Morales enters the game for Paolo Banchero
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Colin Castleton enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Jevon Carter enters the game for Desmond Bane
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Magic Full timeout
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·1:50
Tristan da Silva shooting foul
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·2:02
Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)
·
DET 105·ORL 121
- Q4·2:17
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
DET 105·ORL 119
- Q4·2:20
Desmond Bane blocks Chaz Lanier 's 11-foot fade away jump shot
·
DET 105·ORL 119
- Q4·2:37
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 105·ORL 119
- Q4·2:37
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
DET 105·ORL 119
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
ORL
Home
42-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-81
49
FG %
51
10-30
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-26
13-19
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
30-40
32
Assists
28
19
Turnovers
14
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 222.5·DET -118/ORL -102
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.796
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ORL vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Desmond BaneORL18.8± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Jalen SuggsORL4.6± 1.5high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Anthony BlackORL1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
ORL
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
115.9
PPG
114.9
114.2
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
26.0
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.7