POR
40-39
DEN
51-28
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets held off Portland Trail Blazers, 137–132 in overtime. Decided by 5.
POR +6.5 cashed (DEN won by 5). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 33.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
POR · top performer
Toumani Camara
F · #33
30
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
DEN · top performer
Nikola Jokic
C · #15
35
Pts
14
Reb
13
Ast
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 35 | 30 | 10-16 | 8-13 | 2-2 | +2 | 5 | 0 | |
| 40 | 26 | 6-15 | 1-6 | 13-14 | -15 | 4 | 7 | |
| 30 | 18 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 3-4 | -5 | 12 | 0 | |
| 39 | 19 | 7-19 | 5-12 | — | -1 | 6 | 11 | |
| 36 | 18 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 2-2 | -15 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-4 | — | 2-4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | |
| 33 | 14 | 5-7 | 4-6 | — | +8 | 1 | 3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 132 | 42-89 | 25-52 | 23-28 | 39 | 29 | ||
| DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
DNP: Y. Hansen, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 23 | 8-14 | 4-9 | 3-4 | +5 | 9 | 5 | |
| 37 | 17 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 4-5 | +25 | 6 | 7 | |
| 43 | 35 | 15-31 | 1-5 | 4-4 | +5 | 14 | 13 | |
| 38 | 20 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 3-3 | +11 | 1 | 7 | |
| 40 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-3 | — | +10 | 6 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 14 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-5 | — | -24 | 1 | 1 | |
| 24 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | -3 | 5 | 2 | |
| 19 | 11 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 137 | 52-101 | 12-38 | 21-24 | 45 | 37 | ||
| DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, T. Jones, J. Pickett, K. Simpson, C. Jones | ||||||||
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, T. Jones, J. Pickett, K. Simpson, C. Jones
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
51
29
Ast
37
Season series
DEN wins series 3-1
DEN107@POR109DEN157@POR103POR112@DEN128POR132@DEN137todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+23530%DEN-29074%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 50pp · OT · 5:00
PORT. Camara
FGame leader · 35 min30-point game
30 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
DENN. Jokic
CGame leader · 43 minTriple-double
35 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST
How it ended
DEN beat POR 137-132. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 35 PTS, 14 REB, and 13 AST. DEN outscored the other side 38-24 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
111 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST
GS 90
Bench(4)
21 PTS · 9 REB · 8 AST
GS 18
DENstarters 75% of ptsStarters(5)
103 PTS · 36 REB · 33 AST
GS 100
Bench(4)
34 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactScoot Henderson · blocks Cameron Johnson's running layup
Julian Strawther · enters the game for Christian Braun
Donovan Clingan · vs. Nikola Jokic (Cameron Johnson gains possession)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 35 | 37 | 29 | 24 | 7 | 132 |
| DEN | 31 | 27 | 29 | 38 | 12 | 137 |
Period scoring
POR won 2 · DEN won 2
Q1
Camara 12
Jokic 12
Q2
Camara 8
Murray 22
Q3
Camara 8
Jokic 11
Q4
Holiday 9
Jokic 10
OT
Avdija 4
Murray 7
Shooting comparison
47%
42-89
FG
51%
52-101
48%
25-52
3PT
32%
12-38
82%
23-28
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 518 plays
- OT·0.0
End of Game
POR 132·DEN 137
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
POR 132·DEN 137
+1pp
- OT·9.2
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
POR 132·DEN 137
+1pp
- OT·12.5
Scoot Henderson misses running pullup jump shot
POR 132·DEN 137
+3pp
- OT·17.3
Scoot Henderson defensive rebound
POR 132·DEN 137
- OT·18.9
Jamal Murray misses driving layup
·
POR 132·DEN 137
- OT·37.6
Deni Avdija makes running layup
POR 132·DEN 137
−2pp
- OT·41.0
Robert Williams III defensive rebound
POR 130·DEN 137
- OT·43.9
Christian Braun misses 22-foot three point jumper
POR 130·DEN 137
−0.6pp
- OT·1:02
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
POR 130·DEN 137
+0.5pp
- OT·1:04
Jrue Holiday misses driving layup
POR 130·DEN 137
+1pp
- OT·1:26
(01:26) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
POR 130·DEN 137
+1pp
- OT·1:26
Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Jamal Murray assists)
· ·
POR 130·DEN 137
+4pp
- OT·1:51
Deni Avdija makes two point shot
POR 130·DEN 135
−2pp
- OT·2:01
Jamal Murray makes 4-foot driving dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)
· ·
POR 128·DEN 135
+3pp
- OT·2:11
(02:11) [Nuggets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Nuggets] retain their timeout
POR 128·DEN 133
+5pp
- OT·2:11
Nuggets Full timeout
POR 128·DEN 133
−4pp
- OT·2:24
Matisse Thybulle out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
POR 128·DEN 133
+6pp
- OT·2:38
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
·
POR 128·DEN 133
−4pp
- OT·2:38
Robert Williams III enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
POR 128·DEN 132
- OT·2:38
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
·
POR 128·DEN 132
+1pp
- OT·2:38
Matisse Thybulle shooting foulBIG MOMENT
POR 128·DEN 131
+10pp
- OT·3:04
Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 128·DEN 131
−10pp
- OT·3:23
Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
POR 125·DEN 131
+11pp
- OT·3:32
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
POR 125·DEN 128
+2pp
- OT·3:36
Jrue Holiday misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 125·DEN 128
+6pp
- OT·3:53
Donovan Clingan defensive rebound
POR 125·DEN 128
−2pp
- OT·3:55
Jamal Murray misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
·
POR 125·DEN 128
−4pp
- OT·4:12
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
POR 125·DEN 128
+7pp
- OT·4:26
Cameron Johnson personal foul
POR 125·DEN 128
−0.5pp
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
42-89
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
52-101
47
FG %
51
25-52
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-38
23-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
29
Assists
37
15
Turnovers
12
Betting line
DEN -6.5·O/U 235.5·POR +235/DEN -290
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+- Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.296
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 165 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
DEN
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
114.6
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1