DEN
49-28
UTAH
21-56
DEN · top performer
Jamal Murray
G · #27
37
Pts
5
Reb
5
Ast
UTAH · top performer
Kyle Filipowski
F · #22
25
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 5pp · 4th Quarter · 10:38
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 28 | 6 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | +3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 35 | 19 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 2-2 | +16 | 9 | 6 | |
| 33 | 15 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +10 | 17 | 12 | |
| 37 | 37 | 12-26 | 10-16 | 3-3 | +20 | 5 | 5 | |
| 31 | 18 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | +15 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 13 | 3-6 | — | 7-8 | +8 | 6 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 11 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | +8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | — | — | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-2 | — | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 130 | 44-91 | 16-39 | 26-31 | 53 | 30 | ||
| DNP: T. Jones | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 25 | 9-15 | 3-8 | 4-5 | +8 | 12 | 3 | |
| 38 | 9 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -14 | 2 | 9 | |
| 33 | 28 | 11-18 | 6-9 | 0-1 | +4 | 6 | 4 | |
| 21 | 8 | 4-8 | — | — | -14 | 7 | 0 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5-17 | 1-9 | 1-2 | -15 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 29 | 12 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 3-5 | -10 | 10 | 6 | |
| 32 | 16 | 5-14 | 0-4 | 6-8 | -7 | 5 | 6 | |
| 23 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -17 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 117 | 44-95 | 12-37 | 17-25 | 44 | 32 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless, I. Collier | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
48
FG %
46
30
Ast
32
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
UTAH
Home
44-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-95
48
FG %
46
16-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-37
26-31
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-25
30
Assists
32
13
Turnovers
12
Season series
DEN wins series 4-0
UTAH112@DEN135DEN128@UTAH125UTAH129@DEN135DEN130@UTAH117todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -17.5
Between 10 and —
Total
249.5
High-scoring · +23.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-180095%UTAH+10009%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 27 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
17.5
0.0 since open
Total
249.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat UTAH 130-117. J. Murray led the way with 37 points and 5 assists. DEN outscored the other side 39-28 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
UTAH vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
95 PTS · 39 REB · 29 AST
GS 90
Bench(9)
35 PTS · 14 REB · 1 AST
GS 26
UTAHstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 57
Bench(3)
35 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST
GS 38
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 39 | 29 | 29 | 33 | 130 |
| UTAH | 28 | 26 | 36 | 27 | 117 |
Period scoring
DEN won 3 · UTAH won 1
Q1
Murray 15
Sensabaugh 10
Q2
Johnson 9
Filipowski 10
Q3
Jokic 12
Bailey 11
Q4
Murray 11
Williams 18
Shooting comparison
48%
44-91
FG
46%
44-95
41%
16-39
3PT
32%
12-37
84%
26-31
FT
68%
17-25
Play-by-play · 491 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 130·UTAH 117
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 130·UTAH 117
- Q4·5.7
shot clock turnover
DEN 130·UTAH 117
- Q4·29.8
Kennedy Chandler makes running layup
DEN 130·UTAH 117
- Q4·34.6
Kennedy Chandler defensive rebound
DEN 130·UTAH 115
- Q4·37.9
David Roddy misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 130·UTAH 115
- Q4·46.8
Kennedy Chandler makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
DEN 130·UTAH 115
- Q4·1:01
David Roddy makes 5-foot two point shot
DEN 130·UTAH 113
- Q4·1:13
David Roddy defensive rebound
DEN 128·UTAH 113
- Q4·1:13
Bez Mbeng misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 113
- Q4·1:13
Bez Mbeng makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 113
- Q4·1:13
Jalen Pickett loose ball foul
DEN 128·UTAH 112
- Q4·1:13
Jazz offensive team rebound
DEN 128·UTAH 112
- Q4·1:14
John Konchar misses free throw 2 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 112
- Q4·1:14
John Konchar makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 112
- Q4·1:14
KJ Simpson loose ball foul
DEN 128·UTAH 111
- Q4·1:14
Jazz defensive team rebound
DEN 128·UTAH 111
- Q4·1:14
John Konchar blocks KJ Simpson 's 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
DEN 128·UTAH 111
- Q4·1:33
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 111
- Q4·1:33
Jazz offensive team rebound
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:33
Kennedy Chandler misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:33
KJ Simpson shooting foul
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:39
David Roddy enters the game for Aaron Gordon
·
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:39
KJ Simpson personal take foul
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
DEN 127·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
Jalen Pickett enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
DEN 127·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
Julian Strawther enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 127·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
KJ Simpson enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 127·UTAH 110
- Q4·1:40
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 127·UTAH 110
Betting line
DEN -17.5·O/U 249.5·DEN -1800/UTAH +1000
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 130–117.
UTAH +17.5 cashed (DEN won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 249.5 by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+
Bez MbengUTAH · GDEFL3.998- Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH · GTOUCHES72.194
John KoncharUTAH · GDEFL2.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · UTAH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
UTAH vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Kyle FilipowskiUTAH8.1± 2.6high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Peyton WatsonDEN1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.5± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
UTAH
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.6%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
46.7%
121.1
PPG
114.9
117.6
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.6
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.0