NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8SAC

SAC

20-57

123115

TOR

42-34

NBAWed, Apr 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTOR -12.5

SAC · top performer

Precious Achiuwa

PF · #9

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Sandro Mamukelashvili

F · #54

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 65pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	38	28	12-19	1-2	3-4	+22	19	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	23	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	+1	8	0
D. DeRozanG · #10	35	28	7-18	2-4	12-12	+2	1	4
D. CarterG · #22	23	13	4-12	1-4	4-4	+13	5	3
N. CliffordG · #5	32	9	4-9	1-3	—	+7	2	3
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	9	3	1-3	1-3	—	-7	0	0
D. CardwellC · #32	14	2	1-3	—	—	+1	6	3
M. MonkG · #0	29	18	6-11	3-7	3-4	-5	3	5
D. PlowdenG · #29	22	11	4-8	3-7	—	+7	2	2
K. HayesG · #3	14	5	1-5	0-2	3-3	-1	2	3
Team		123	42-92	12-33	27-29		48	24
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. BarrettF · #9	36	20	8-19	1-5	3-5	+2	5	6
S. BarnesF · #4	35	14	5-14	0-3	4-8	-15	5	10
J. PoeltlC · #19	28	18	6-8	—	6-8	-9	5	1
J. SheadG · #23	37	16	5-9	3-3	3-3	+17	1	7
J. WalterG · #14	32	8	3-4	2-3	—	-8	4	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	33	17	7-10	3-5	—	-9	6	3
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	18	20	7-9	0-1	6-8	+5	4	2
A.J. LawsonG · #0	16	2	1-3	0-2	—	-13	1	1
A. MartinG · #55	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-10	1	0
Team		115	42-77	9-23	22-32		32	33
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, M. Fultz, G. Dick

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

42-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-77

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-23

27-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 22

TOR122@

SAC109

Apr 2

SAC123@

TOR115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+52516%

TOR-75088%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -12.5↗SpreadBet TOR -12.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat TOR 123-115. P. Achiuwa paced them with 28 PTS, 19 REB, 1 AST. DeMar DeRozan's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (65pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 35 REB · 11 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 13 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

TORstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 20 REB · 27 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

39 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 8:53 · 66-63

+27pp→ 49% WP

Collin Murray-Boyles · shooting foul

SAC4th Quarter · 12:00 · 90-81

+21pp→ 79% WP

Ja'Kobe Walter · enters the game for Alijah Martin

TOR2nd Quarter · 8:58 · 34-31

+65pp→ 65% WP

DeMar DeRozan · enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	27	34	29	33	123
TOR	22	34	25	34	115

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · TOR won 1

Monk 9

Poeltl 5

Achiuwa 11

Barrett 10

DeRozan 12

Murray-Boyles 20

DeRozan 14

Barnes 35

SAC

TOR

Shooting comparison

SAC

TOR

46%

42-92

55%

42-77

36%

12-33

3PT

39%

9-23

93%

27-29

69%

22-32

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·0.0
Raptors offensive team rebound
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·0.0
Jamal Shead misses heave jump shot
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·2.0
shot clock turnover
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·24.9
Malik Monk defensive rebound
SAC 123·TOR 115
Q4·27.4
Jamal Shead misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 123·TOR 115
−1pp
Q4·34.7
Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot (Malik Monk assists)
·
SAC 123·TOR 115
−2pp
Q4·48.8
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 121·TOR 115
−1pp
Q4·51.5
RJ Barrett misses 23-foot jump bank shot
SAC 121·TOR 115
−3pp
Q4·53.6
Raptors offensive team rebound
SAC 121·TOR 115
+3pp
Q4·55.1
Scottie Barnes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 121·TOR 115
−4pp
Q4·1:05
DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 121·TOR 115
−12pp
Q4·1:18
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 118·TOR 115
−1pp
Q4·1:18
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
SAC 118·TOR 114
Q4·1:18
Raptors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−6pp
Q4·1:18
Scottie Barnes misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−8pp
Q4·1:18
Precious Achiuwa shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
+13pp
Q4·1:27
DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−9pp
Q4·1:40
Scottie Barnes makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·TOR 114
+7pp
Q4·1:50
Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 116·TOR 112
+6pp
Q4·1:50
Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 115·TOR 112
−2pp
Q4·1:50
Kings Full timeout
SAC 114·TOR 112
Q4·1:50
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
−13pp
Q4·2:03
RJ Barrett offensive foul turnover
SAC 114·TOR 112
Q4·2:03
RJ Barrett offensive foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
−11pp
Q4·2:18
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
SAC 114·TOR 112
+2pp
Q4·2:22
Nique Clifford misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
+6pp
Q4·2:38
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
+14pp
Q4·2:38
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 111
+9pp

Betting line

TOR -12.5·O/U 227.5·SAC +525/TOR -750

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 123–115.

SAC +12.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high
Brandon IngramTOR
18.7± 10.3high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high
Jamal SheadTOR
4.8± 1.8high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

TOR

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Team pages

Sacramento KingsToronto Raptors

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR