SAC
20-57
TOR
42-34
Recap · NBA
acramento Kings went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 123–115.
SAC +12.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SAC · top performer
Precious Achiuwa
PF · #9
28
Pts
19
Reb
1
Ast
TOR · top performer
Sandro Mamukelashvili
F · #54
17
Pts
6
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 28 | 12-19 | 1-2 | 3-4 | +22 | 19 | 1 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +1 | 8 | 0 | |
| 35 | 28 | 7-18 | 2-4 | 12-12 | +2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 23 | 13 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 4-4 | +13 | 5 | 3 | |
| 32 | 9 | 4-9 | 1-3 | — | +7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | +1 | 6 | 3 | |
| 29 | 18 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 3-4 | -5 | 3 | 5 | |
| 22 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | — | +7 | 2 | 2 | |
| 14 | 5 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 3-3 | -1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 123 | 42-92 | 12-33 | 27-29 | 48 | 24 | ||
| DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray | ||||||||
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 20 | 8-19 | 1-5 | 3-5 | +2 | 5 | 6 | |
| 35 | 14 | 5-14 | 0-3 | 4-8 | -15 | 5 | 10 | |
| 28 | 18 | 6-8 | — | 6-8 | -9 | 5 | 1 | |
| 37 | 16 | 5-9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | +17 | 1 | 7 | |
| 32 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-3 | — | -8 | 4 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 33 | 17 | 7-10 | 3-5 | — | -9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 18 | 20 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 6-8 | +5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -13 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 115 | 42-77 | 9-23 | 22-32 | 32 | 33 | ||
| DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, M. Fultz, G. Dick | ||||||||
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, M. Fultz, G. Dick
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
55
24
Ast
33
Season series
Series tied 1-1
TOR122@SAC109SAC123@TOR115todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TOR -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SAC+52516%TOR-75088%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 65pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:58
SACP. Achiuwa
PFGame leader · 38 minDouble-double
28 PTS · 19 REB · 1 AST
TORS. Mamukelashvili
FGame leader · 33 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers
17 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
SAC beat TOR 123-115. P. Achiuwa paced them with 28 PTS, 19 REB, 1 AST. DeMar DeRozan's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (65pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
TOR vs SAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitSACstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
84 PTS · 35 REB · 11 AST
GS 66
Bench(5)
39 PTS · 13 REB · 13 AST
GS 35
TORstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 20 REB · 27 AST
GS 66
Bench(4)
39 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST
GS 36
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCollin Murray-Boyles · shooting foul
Ja'Kobe Walter · enters the game for Alijah Martin
DeMar DeRozan · enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 27 | 34 | 29 | 33 | 123 |
| TOR | 22 | 34 | 25 | 34 | 115 |
Period scoring
SAC won 2 · TOR won 1
Q1
Monk 9
Poeltl 5
Q2
Achiuwa 11
Barrett 10
Q3
DeRozan 12
Murray-Boyles 20
Q4
DeRozan 14
Barnes 35
Shooting comparison
46%
42-92
FG
55%
42-77
36%
12-33
3PT
39%
9-23
93%
27-29
FT
69%
22-32
Play-by-play · 490 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·0.0
Raptors offensive team rebound
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·0.0
Jamal Shead misses heave jump shot
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·2.0
shot clock turnover
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·24.9
Malik Monk defensive rebound
SAC 123·TOR 115
- Q4·27.4
Jamal Shead misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 123·TOR 115
−1pp
- Q4·34.7
Precious Achiuwa makes two point shot (Malik Monk assists)
·
SAC 123·TOR 115
−2pp
- Q4·48.8
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
SAC 121·TOR 115
−1pp
- Q4·51.5
RJ Barrett misses 23-foot jump bank shot
SAC 121·TOR 115
−3pp
- Q4·53.6
Raptors offensive team rebound
SAC 121·TOR 115
+3pp
- Q4·55.1
Scottie Barnes misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 121·TOR 115
−4pp
- Q4·1:05
DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 121·TOR 115
−12pp
- Q4·1:18
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 118·TOR 115
−1pp
- Q4·1:18
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
SAC 118·TOR 114
- Q4·1:18
Raptors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−6pp
- Q4·1:18
Scottie Barnes misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−8pp
- Q4·1:18
Precious Achiuwa shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
+13pp
- Q4·1:27
DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 118·TOR 114
−9pp
- Q4·1:40
Scottie Barnes makes 2-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 116·TOR 114
+7pp
- Q4·1:50
Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 116·TOR 112
+6pp
- Q4·1:50
Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 115·TOR 112
−2pp
- Q4·1:50
Kings Full timeout
SAC 114·TOR 112
- Q4·1:50
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
−13pp
- Q4·2:03
RJ Barrett offensive foul turnover
SAC 114·TOR 112
- Q4·2:03
RJ Barrett offensive foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
−11pp
- Q4·2:18
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
SAC 114·TOR 112
+2pp
- Q4·2:22
Nique Clifford misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
+6pp
- Q4·2:38
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 112
+14pp
- Q4·2:38
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 114·TOR 111
+9pp
Team stats
SAC
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
42-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-77
46
FG %
55
12-33
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-23
27-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-32
24
Assists
33
13
Turnovers
11
Betting line
TOR -12.5·O/U 227.5·SAC +525/TOR -750
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Jakob PoeltlTOR · CTS%69.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · FDRIVES16.798
RJ BarrettTOR · FDRIVES16.497
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · GDEFL3.494
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · FDEFL3.193
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs SAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- RJ BarrettTOR21.8± 4.6high
- Scottie BarnesTOR20.0± 6.0high
- Brandon IngramTOR18.7± 10.3high
Rebounds
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Maxime RaynaudSAC8.3± 2.4high
- Precious AchiuwaSAC8.2± 4.6high
Assists
- Russell WestbrookSAC7.5± 2.7high
- Scottie BarnesTOR7.1± 3.8high
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR5.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Scottie BarnesTOR1.5± 1.4high
- Keegan MurraySAC1.4± 0.8high
Steals
- Chucky HepburnTOR1.9± 2.1low
- Immanuel QuickleyTOR1.6± 0.9high
- Ja'Kobe WalterTOR1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SAC
league avg
TOR
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.5%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
▶48.1%
111.0
PPG
114.9
▶114.3
25.5
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.2
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0