NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+29ATL

ATL

44-33

130101

ORL

40-36

NBAWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesATL wins series 4-0VegasATL -2.5

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 130–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -2.5 cashed (won by 29). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Wendell Carter Jr.

C · #34

11.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	31	16	4-11	2-5	6-8	+13	7	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	34	18	8-17	0-4	2-3	+14	14	8
C. McCollumG · #3	34	9	4-13	1-4	0-1	+21	1	3
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	33	32	11-16	5-9	5-6	+28	4	1
D. DanielsG · #5	31	15	5-11	1-2	4-4	+19	13	4
Bench
J. KumingaF · #0	19	12	5-7	1-2	1-1	+4	0	1
M. GueyeF · #18	11	0	0-3	0-3	—	-1	2	2
A. NewellF · #14	3	2	1-1	—	—	+6	1	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	13	4	2-2	—	—	+14	3	1
J. LandaleC · #31	15	8	3-4	1-2	1-2	+10	1	1
G. VincentG · #4	12	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	+5	2	1
K. WallaceG · #2	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	+6	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	3	9	3-3	3-3	—	+6	3	0
Team		130	47-92	15-37	21-27		51	27
DNP: C. Kispert, B. Hield

DNP: C. Kispert, B. Hield

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	26	11	3-9	0-1	5-6	-18	8	3
F. WagnerF · #22	20	12	5-13	0-6	2-3	-12	1	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	25	14	6-9	0-2	2-2	-16	6	0
D. BaneG · #3	30	14	5-13	2-6	2-3	-15	2	2
J. SuggsG · #4	26	7	3-12	0-5	1-1	-13	5	9
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	8	2	1-3	—	0-1	-8	2	0
J. CainF · #8	27	17	5-9	2-6	5-5	-19	1	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	23	9	2-5	0-1	5-5	-12	2	6
N. PendaF · #93	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	2	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	15	4	2-3	—	—	-5	5	1
J. CarterG · #2	16	3	1-3	1-2	—	-6	0	2
J. HowardG · #13	11	4	1-5	1-2	1-1	-6	1	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	8	4	1-3	—	2-4	-8	2	1
Team		101	35-88	6-32	25-31		37	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ATL wins series 4-0

Oct 24

ATL111@

ORL107

Nov 5

ORL112@

ATL127

Mar 16

ORL112@

ATL124

Apr 1

ATL130@

ORL101today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-14259%

ORL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗SpreadBet ATL -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:47

ATL

N. Alexander-Walker

Game leader · 33 min30-point game

32 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

ORL

W. Carter Jr.

Game leader · 25 min

14 PTS · 6 REB · 0 AST

How it ended

ATL beat ORL 130-101. N. Alexander-Walker paced them with 32 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. ATL outscored the other side 47-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 39 REB · 20 AST

GS 76

Bench(8)

40 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

ORLstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST

GS 34

Bench(8)

43 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 8:04 · 6-10

+7pp→ 51% WP

Paolo Banchero · lost ball turnover (Mouhamed Gueye steals)

ATL2nd Quarter · 11:47 · 28-28

+7pp→ 57% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	25	47	30	28	130
ORL	28	26	22	25	101

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · ORL won 1

McCollum 7

Bane 6

Alexander-Walker 17

Jr. 10

Daniels 11

Banchero 5

Houstan 9

Bitadze 35

ATL

ORL

Shooting comparison

ATL

ORL

51%

47-92

40%

35-88

41%

15-37

3PT

19%

6-32

78%

21-27

81%

25-31

Play-by-play · 532 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 130·ORL 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 130·ORL 101
Q4·22.6
Jamal Cain makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 130·ORL 101
Q4·22.6
Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 130·ORL 100
Q4·22.6
Caleb Houstan personal foul
ATL 130·ORL 99
Q4·26.2
Asa Newell makes dunk
ATL 130·ORL 99
Q4·26.2
Asa Newell offensive rebound
ATL 128·ORL 99
Q4·29.2
Mouhamed Gueye misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 128·ORL 99
Q4·38.3
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
ATL 128·ORL 99
Q4·41.1
Jase Richardson misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 128·ORL 99
Q4·41.1
Jase Richardson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 128·ORL 99
Q4·41.1
Caleb Houstan shooting foul
ATL 128·ORL 98
Q4·48.4
Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot running jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
·
ATL 128·ORL 98
Q4·52.9
Jase Richardson bad pass turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·55.5
Magic offensive team rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·55.5
Zaccharie Risacher blocks Jett Howard 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:07
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:10
Keaton Wallace misses 29-foot three point jumper
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:14
Caleb Houstan offensive rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:18
Keaton Wallace misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:31
Jase Richardson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Noah Penda assists)
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
Q4·1:39
Caleb Houstan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 125·ORL 96
Q4·1:46
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
ATL 122·ORL 96
Q4·1:49
Noah Penda misses 29-foot three point jumper
ATL 122·ORL 96
Q4·2:03
Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)
·
ATL 122·ORL 96
Q4·2:13
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
ATL 119·ORL 96
Q4·2:16
Moritz Wagner misses free throw 1 of 1
·
ATL 119·ORL 96
Q4·2:16
Keaton Wallace shooting foul
ATL 119·ORL 96
Q4·2:16
Moritz Wagner makes 2-foot layup (Noah Penda assists)
· ·
ATL 119·ORL 96
Q4·2:30
Zaccharie Risacher makes 13-foot two point shot
ATL 119·ORL 94

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

47-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-88

FG %

15-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-32

21-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-31

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -2.5·O/U 235.5·ATL -142/ORL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.398
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.297
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.297
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

ORL

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR