ATL
44-33
ORL
40-36
ATL · top performer
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
G · #7
32
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
ORL · top performer
Wendell Carter Jr.
C · #34
14
Pts
6
Reb
0
Ast
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:47
NBA · Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 16 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 6-8 | +13 | 7 | 4 | |
| 34 | 18 | 8-17 | 0-4 | 2-3 | +14 | 14 | 8 | |
| 34 | 9 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 0-1 | +21 | 1 | 3 | |
| 33 | 32 | 11-16 | 5-9 | 5-6 | +28 | 4 | 1 | |
| 31 | 15 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 4-4 | +19 | 13 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | +4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 13 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | +14 | 3 | 1 | |
| 15 | 8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | +10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 12 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | — | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 130 | 47-92 | 15-37 | 21-27 | 51 | 27 | ||
| DNP: C. Kispert, B. Hield | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 5-6 | -18 | 8 | 3 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5-13 | 0-6 | 2-3 | -12 | 1 | 2 | |
| 25 | 14 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -16 | 6 | 0 | |
| 30 | 14 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 2-3 | -15 | 2 | 2 | |
| 26 | 7 | 3-12 | 0-5 | 1-1 | -13 | 5 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 2 | 1-3 | — | 0-1 | -8 | 2 | 0 | |
| 27 | 17 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 5-5 | -19 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 9 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 5-5 | -12 | 2 | 6 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 2 | 2 | |
| 15 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 2 | |
| 11 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | -6 | 1 | 1 | |
| 8 | 4 | 1-3 | — | 2-4 | -8 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 101 | 35-88 | 6-32 | 25-31 | 37 | 29 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
40
27
Ast
29
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
ORL
Home
47-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
35-88
51
FG %
40
15-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-32
21-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
25-31
27
Assists
29
17
Turnovers
19
Season series
ATL wins series 4-0
ATL111@ORL107ORL112@ATL127ORL112@ATL124ATL130@ORL101todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ATL-14259%ORL+12045%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 21 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ATL beat ORL 130-101. N. Alexander-Walker paced them with 32 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. ATL outscored the other side 47-26 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
ORL vs ATL
Starters vs bench
production by unitATLstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 39 REB · 20 AST
GS 76
Bench(8)
40 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST
GS 35
ORLstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
58 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST
GS 34
Bench(8)
43 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPaolo Banchero · lost ball turnover (Mouhamed Gueye steals)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 25 | 47 | 30 | 28 | 130 |
| ORL | 28 | 26 | 22 | 25 | 101 |
Period scoring
ATL won 3 · ORL won 1
Q1
McCollum 7
Bane 6
Q2
Alexander-Walker 17
Jr. 10
Q3
Daniels 11
Banchero 5
Q4
Houstan 9
Bitadze 35
Shooting comparison
51%
47-92
FG
40%
35-88
41%
15-37
3PT
19%
6-32
78%
21-27
FT
81%
25-31
Play-by-play · 532 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 130·ORL 101
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 130·ORL 101
- Q4·22.6
Jamal Cain makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 130·ORL 101
- Q4·22.6
Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 130·ORL 100
- Q4·22.6
Caleb Houstan personal foul
ATL 130·ORL 99
- Q4·26.2
Asa Newell makes dunk
ATL 130·ORL 99
- Q4·26.2
Asa Newell offensive rebound
ATL 128·ORL 99
- Q4·29.2
Mouhamed Gueye misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 128·ORL 99
- Q4·38.3
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
ATL 128·ORL 99
- Q4·41.1
Jase Richardson misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 128·ORL 99
- Q4·41.1
Jase Richardson makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 128·ORL 99
- Q4·41.1
Caleb Houstan shooting foul
ATL 128·ORL 98
- Q4·48.4
Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot running jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
·
ATL 128·ORL 98
- Q4·52.9
Jase Richardson bad pass turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·55.5
Magic offensive team rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·55.5
Zaccharie Risacher blocks Jett Howard 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:07
Noah Penda defensive rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:10
Keaton Wallace misses 29-foot three point jumper
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:14
Caleb Houstan offensive rebound
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:18
Keaton Wallace misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:31
Jase Richardson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Noah Penda assists)
·
ATL 125·ORL 98
- Q4·1:39
Caleb Houstan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Asa Newell assists)
·
ATL 125·ORL 96
- Q4·1:46
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
ATL 122·ORL 96
- Q4·1:49
Noah Penda misses 29-foot three point jumper
ATL 122·ORL 96
- Q4·2:03
Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)
·
ATL 122·ORL 96
- Q4·2:13
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
ATL 119·ORL 96
- Q4·2:16
Moritz Wagner misses free throw 1 of 1
·
ATL 119·ORL 96
- Q4·2:16
Keaton Wallace shooting foul
ATL 119·ORL 96
- Q4·2:16
Moritz Wagner makes 2-foot layup (Noah Penda assists)
· ·
ATL 119·ORL 96
- Q4·2:30
Zaccharie Risacher makes 13-foot two point shot
ATL 119·ORL 94
Betting line
ATL -2.5·O/U 235.5·ATL -142/ORL +120
Recap · NBA
tlanta Hawks went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 130–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ATL -2.5 cashed (won by 29). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · FDEFL4.399
Onyeka OkongwuATL · FDEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · GDEFL4.299- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
32%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ORL vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Jalen JohnsonATL19.8± 3.8high
- CJ McCollumATL19.4± 8.5high
Rebounds
- Jalen JohnsonATL9.1± 2.5high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL7.4± 4.7high
Assists
- Ryan NembhardATL6.2± 5.9high
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Jalen JohnsonATL5.8± 1.8high
Blocks
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
- CJ McCollumATL0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Dyson DanielsATL2.1± 1.3high
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Anthony BlackORL1.5± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ATL
league avg
ORL
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.5%
47.2%
FG%
47.0
45.9%
117.2
PPG
114.9
114.2
29.6
Assists / G
25.0
26.0
13.4
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.7