BOS
51-25
MIA
40-37
Recap · NBA
oston Celtics went into Miami Heat and beat them, 147–129.
BOS -4.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 46.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BOS · top performer
Jaylen Brown
G · #7
43
Pts
3
Reb
7
Ast
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
29
Pts
10
Reb
2
Ast
NBA · Boston Celtics at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 25 | 9-21 | 4-13 | 3-4 | +7 | 18 | 11 | |
| 29 | 23 | 9-11 | 5-7 | 0-1 | +23 | 3 | 0 | |
| 33 | 16 | 5-7 | — | 6-8 | +28 | 11 | 3 | |
| 34 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 5 | 4 | |
| 37 | 43 | 17-29 | 4-10 | 5-7 | +9 | 3 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 31 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-7 | — | +20 | 3 | 4 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | — | +14 | 2 | 4 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 147 | 56-96 | 21-44 | 14-20 | 48 | 34 | ||
| DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., J. Tonje | ||||||||
DNP: A. Williams, C. Bassey, R. Harper Jr., J. Tonje
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 13 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | -17 | 4 | 2 | |
| 38 | 29 | 10-21 | 5-10 | 4-8 | -23 | 10 | 2 | |
| 40 | 21 | 8-15 | 5-10 | — | +7 | 2 | 7 | |
| 40 | 18 | 5-15 | 4-10 | 4-4 | -11 | 3 | 7 | |
| 38 | 18 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | +7 | 3 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 17 | 7-16 | 2-5 | 1-1 | -23 | 10 | 2 | |
| 13 | 8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -18 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 129 | 44-95 | 24-47 | 17-23 | 37 | 27 | ||
| DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, T. Keels, K. Jakucionis | ||||||||
DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, N. Jovic, V. Goldin, T. Keels, K. Jakucionis
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
58
FG %
46
34
Ast
27
Season series
BOS wins series 4-0
MIA116@BOS129BOS119@MIA114MIA96@BOS98BOS147@MIA129todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
229.5
Standard · +3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BOS-19866%MIA+16438%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
229.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 4:54
BOSJ. Brown
GGame leader · 37 min40-point game
43 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST
MIAB. Adebayo
CGame leader · 38 minDouble-double
29 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST
How it ended
BOS beat MIA 147-129. J. Brown led the way with 43 points and 7 assists. BOS outscored the other side 53-33 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs BOS
Starters vs bench
production by unitBOSstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
113 PTS · 40 REB · 25 AST
GS 106
Bench(6)
34 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
GS 33
MIAstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
99 PTS · 22 REB · 24 AST
GS 81
Bench(4)
30 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST
GS 24
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 53 | 27 | 32 | 35 | 147 |
| MIA | 33 | 24 | 45 | 27 | 129 |
Period scoring
BOS won 3 · MIA won 1
Q1
Brown 20
Adebayo 11
Q2
Tatum 10
Adebayo 6
Q3
Brown 12
Mitchell 23
Q4
Queta 11
Adebayo 8
Shooting comparison
58%
56-96
FG
46%
44-95
48%
21-44
3PT
51%
24-47
70%
14-20
FT
74%
17-23
Play-by-play · 450 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·7.8
Max Shulga enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·7.8
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·7.8
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·7.8
shot clock turnover
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·32.0
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·36.5
Davion Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·42.3
Derrick White makes 12-foot two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
BOS 147·MIA 129
- Q4·1:02
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point shot
BOS 145·MIA 129
- Q4·1:03
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
BOS 145·MIA 127
- Q4·1:05
Neemias Queta blocks Jaime Jaquez Jr. 's 6-foot driving layup
·
BOS 145·MIA 127
- Q4·1:13
Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 145·MIA 127
- Q4·1:30
Davion Mitchell makes 6-foot two point shot
BOS 142·MIA 127
- Q4·1:38
Jaylen Brown makes 11-foot two point shot
BOS 142·MIA 125
- Q4·1:49
Baylor Scheierman offensive rebound
BOS 140·MIA 125
- Q4·1:53
Jaylen Brown misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 140·MIA 125
- Q4·2:02
Payton Pritchard offensive rebound
BOS 140·MIA 125
- Q4·2:05
Jaylen Brown misses 28-foot three point jumper
BOS 140·MIA 125
- Q4·2:22
Pelle Larsson makes free throw 1 of 1
BOS 140·MIA 125
- Q4·2:22
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
BOS 140·MIA 124
- Q4·2:22
Pelle Larsson makes two point shot
BOS 140·MIA 124
- Q4·2:27
Payton Pritchard loose ball foul
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:27
Heat offensive team rebound
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:28
Pelle Larsson misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:41
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:43
Neemias Queta misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:43
Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 140·MIA 122
- Q4·2:43
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
BOS 139·MIA 122
- Q4·2:43
Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Tyler Herro
·
BOS 139·MIA 122
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
56-96
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-95
58
FG %
46
21-44
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
24-47
14-20
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-23
34
Assists
27
7
Turnovers
9
Betting line
BOS -4.5·O/U 229.5·BOS -198/MIA +164
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Jaylen BrownBOS · GUSG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · FTOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · CCONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · CTS%68.296
Payton PritchardBOS · GTOUCHES65.688
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Jaylen BrownBOS26.6± 6.3high
- Jayson TatumBOS22.9± 3.5high
- Tyler HerroMIA19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Jayson TatumBOS10.4± 3.8high
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Kel'el WareMIA8.8± 6.0high
Assists
- Jayson TatumBOS6.4± 2.6high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Payton PritchardBOS5.4± 2.2high
Blocks
- Kel'el WareMIA1.3± 2.5high
- Derrick WhiteBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Neemias QuetaBOS1.0± 0.8high
Steals
- Jayson TatumBOS1.4± 1.2high
- Dru SmithMIA1.3± 1.8high
- Bam AdebayoMIA1.2± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BOS
league avg
MIA
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
46.5%
FG%
47.0
46.8%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
24.6
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
11.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.0