NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14SA

58-18

127113

36-40

NBAWed, Apr 1FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasSA -14.5

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 127–113.

GS +14.5 cashed (SA won by 14). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

41.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Omer Yurtseven

C · #77

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	26	15	5-15	4-13	1-1	0	3	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	29	41	16-22	2-6	7-8	+16	18	3
D. FoxG · #4	25	11	4-7	1-2	2-2	+30	4	4
D. VassellG · #24	28	8	2-8	1-5	3-4	+25	2	4
S. CastleG · #5	33	15	4-9	2-4	5-7	+6	7	11
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	27	13	4-7	3-6	2-3	-7	6	3
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	11	3-11	2-6	3-4	+7	3	1
C. BryantF · #11	17	0	0-3	0-3	—	+6	3	1
M. PlumleeC · #45	7	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	24	13	6-11	0-2	1-1	-4	2	5
Team		127	44-93	15-47	24-30		48	34
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	21	14	4-7	4-6	2-2	-11	2	1
N. WilliamsG · #19	47	18	8-18	2-4	—	-9	4	1
L. CryerG · #18	23	17	6-12	2-7	3-3	-16	1	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	17	14	4-8	2-5	4-4	-9	6	5
W. RichardG · #3	26	2	1-3	0-2	—	-18	4	3
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	29	5	2-6	—	1-3	-1	4	5
O. YurtsevenC · #77	29	17	6-9	0-1	5-6	+1	8	4
Se. CurryG · #31	10	12	5-8	2-4	—	-4	2	0
P. SpencerG · #61	38	14	6-15	2-6	—	-3	8	7
Team		113	42-86	14-35	15-18		39	29
DNP: G. Santos, G. Payton II, D. Melton, M. Moody

DNP: G. Santos, G. Payton II, D. Melton, M. Moody

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 13

GS125@

SA120

Nov 15

GS109@

SA108

Feb 12

SA126@

GS113

Apr 2

SA127@

GS113today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-110092%

GS+70013%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -14.5↗SpreadBet SA -14.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSA ↔ GS

V. Wembanyama

Game leader · 29 min40-point game

41 PTS · 18 REB · 3 AST

O. Yurtseven

Game leader · 29 min

17 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

SA beat GS 127-113. V. Wembanyama led the way with 41 points and 18 rebounds. SA outscored the other side 35-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 34 REB · 24 AST

GS 82

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 29

GSstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

Bench(4)

48 PTS · 22 REB · 16 AST

GS 40

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	35	35	26	31	127
GS	26	23	34	30	113

Period scoring

SA won 3 · GS won 1

Wembanyama 17

Podziemski 12

Wembanyama 10

Curry 14

Wembanyama 7

Green 9

Barnes 9

Williams 10

Shooting comparison

47%

44-93

49%

42-86

32%

15-47

3PT

40%

14-35

80%

24-30

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 127·GS 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 127·GS 113
Q4·1.6
shot clock turnover
SA 127·GS 113
Q4·25.8
Malevy Leons makes two point shot
SA 127·GS 113
Q4·25.8
Malevy Leons offensive rebound
SA 127·GS 111
Q4·26.9
Malevy Leons misses driving layup
SA 127·GS 111
Q4·33.5
Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound
SA 127·GS 111
Q4·36.3
Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 127·GS 111
Q4·57.8
Pat Spencer makes 28-foot three pointer
SA 127·GS 111
Q4·1:08
Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:11
Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:15
Stephon Castle offensive rebound
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:18
Carter Bryant misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:29
Carter Bryant offensive rebound
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:30
Dylan Harper misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:47
Nate Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
SA 127·GS 108
Q4·1:59
Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 127·GS 105
Q4·2:12
Omer Yurtseven makes two point shot (Malevy Leons assists)
·
SA 124·GS 105
Q4·2:24
Carter Bryant traveling turnover
SA 124·GS 103
Q4·2:39
shot clock turnover
SA 124·GS 103
Q4·2:54
Dylan Harper kicked ball violation
SA 124·GS 103
Q4·3:07
Dylan Harper makes 3-foot dunk (Julian Champagnie assists)
·
SA 124·GS 103
Q4·3:16
Spurs Full timeout
SA 122·GS 103
Q4·3:17
Nate Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Omer Yurtseven assists)
·
SA 122·GS 103
Q4·3:28
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 122·GS 100
Q4·3:28
Will Richard enters the game for LJ Cryer
·
SA 121·GS 100
Q4·3:28
Malevy Leons shooting foul
SA 121·GS 100
Q4·3:28
Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 121·GS 100
Q4·3:41
LJ Cryer makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 118·GS 100
Q4·3:41
Dylan Harper shooting foul
SA 118·GS 99

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

44-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-86

FG %

15-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -14.5·O/U 228.5·SA -1100/GS +700

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.591
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.583
Keldon JohnsonSA · F
TS%61.376

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR