NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19IND

IND

18-58

145126

CHI

29-47

NBAWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesIND wins series 4-0VegasCHI -3.5

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 145–126.

IND +3.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 246.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	22	25	11-16	1-4	2-2	+22	4	5
J. HuffC · #32	17	17	6-8	5-7	—	+23	3	3
E. ThompsonG · #55	31	24	8-15	5-8	3-4	+22	2	5
K. BrownG · #24	28	17	8-10	1-3	—	+18	8	6
Q. JacksonG · #29	17	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	+24	3	6
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	11	6	3-6	0-1	—	-2	3	3
J. SlawsonF · #18	24	8	3-8	2-4	—	+1	8	5
M. PotterC · #11	17	8	2-3	2-3	2-2	0	4	4
B. SheppardG · #26	22	13	6-11	1-5	—	0	2	5
K. JonesG · #7	25	9	4-8	1-4	—	-7	1	7
T. PeterG · #4	27	10	4-11	2-7	—	-6	3	0
Team		145	58-102	20-48	9-10		41	49
DNP: J. Walker, T.J. McConnell, A. Nembhard, A. Nesmith

DNP: J. Walker, T.J. McConnell, A. Nembhard, A. Nesmith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	25	20	6-12	2-7	6-8	-15	6	1
I. OkoroF · #35	26	14	4-5	3-4	3-4	-10	1	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	29	17	5-11	3-7	4-4	-18	9	6
C. SextonG · #2	26	18	8-14	1-5	1-1	-13	3	4
T. JonesG · #30	25	15	7-11	1-1	—	-21	2	1
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	13	0	0-4	0-4	0-2	-12	4	1
L. MillerF · #11	22	11	4-9	1-3	2-4	-12	6	0
L. OlbrichC · #47	17	8	4-8	0-2	—	+5	8	1
M. McClungG · #5	11	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	+3	2	0
R. DillinghamG · #7	29	15	6-14	2-4	1-1	-7	2	3
Y. KawamuraG · #8	16	0	0-3	0-1	—	+5	3	3
Team		126	47-97	13-39	19-26		46	22
DNP: A. Simons

DNP: A. Simons

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

IND wins series 4-0

Nov 30

CHI101@

IND103

Dec 6

IND120@

CHI105

Jan 29

CHI110@

IND113

Apr 2

IND145@

CHI126today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

246.5

High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+14241%

CHI-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -3.5↗SpreadBet CHI -3.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

246.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowIND ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:19

IND

P. Siakam

Game leader · 22 min

25 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

CHI

M. Buzelis

Game leader · 29 min

17 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

IND beat CHI 145-126. P. Siakam paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. IND outscored the other side 44-33 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 20 REB · 25 AST

GS 87

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 21 REB · 24 AST

GS 56

CHIstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 25 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 10:41 · 42-33

+6pp→ 66% WP

Ethan Thompson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)

IND2nd Quarter · 3:19 · 70-56

+7pp→ 83% WP

Ethan Thompson · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	39	44	34	28	145
CHI	33	33	26	34	126

Period scoring

IND won 3 · CHI won 1

Siakam 13

Buzelis 6

Siakam 10

Buzelis 8

Thompson 8

Okoro 8

Potter 8

Miller 10

IND

CHI

Shooting comparison

IND

CHI

57%

58-102

48%

47-97

42%

20-48

3PT

33%

13-39

90%

9-10

73%

19-26

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 145·CHI 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 145·CHI 126
Q4·23.8
shot clock turnover
IND 145·CHI 126
Q4·47.9
Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 145·CHI 126
Q4·47.9
Kobe Brown shooting foul
IND 145·CHI 125
Q4·47.9
Leonard Miller makes driving layup
IND 145·CHI 125
Q4·59.6
Ethan Thompson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Slawson assists)
·
IND 145·CHI 123
Q4·1:01
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
IND 142·CHI 123
Q4·1:03
Mac McClung misses two point shot
IND 142·CHI 123
Q4·1:14
Ethan Thompson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Kam Jones assists)
· ·
IND 142·CHI 123
Q4·1:27
Mac McClung makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 140·CHI 123
Q4·1:27
Kam Jones shooting foul
·
IND 140·CHI 122
Q4·1:27
Mac McClung makes two point shot
IND 140·CHI 122
Q4·1:34
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
IND 140·CHI 120
Q4·1:36
Kam Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
IND 140·CHI 120
Q4·1:53
Kobe Brown defensive rebound
IND 140·CHI 120
Q4·1:55
Yuki Kawamura misses two point shot
IND 140·CHI 120
Q4·2:10
Kam Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)
· ·
IND 140·CHI 120
Q4·2:12
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:17
Jalen Slawson misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:30
Jalen Slawson defensive rebound
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:33
Leonard Miller misses free throw 1 of 1
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:33
Jalen Slawson shooting foul
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:33
Leonard Miller makes driving layup (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
IND 137·CHI 120
Q4·2:45
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
IND 137·CHI 118
Q4·2:47
Taelon Peter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
IND 137·CHI 118
Q4·3:02
Mac McClung offensive foul turnover
IND 137·CHI 118
Q4·3:02
Mac McClung offensive charge
IND 137·CHI 118
Q4·3:04
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
IND 137·CHI 118
Q4·3:07
Yuki Kawamura misses 23-foot running jump shot
IND 137·CHI 118

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

58-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-97

FG %

20-48

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-39

9-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-26

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CHI -3.5·O/U 246.5·IND +142/CHI -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

CHI

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

27.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR