NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6HOU

MIL

30-46

113119

HOU

47-29

NBAWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -19.5

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Milwaukee Bucks, 119–113.

MIL +19.5 cashed (HOU won by 6). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

Ousmane Dieng

F · #21

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Reed Sheppard

G · #15

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. NanceF · #35	40	23	9-13	5-9	—	-4	3	0
O. DiengF · #21	45	36	15-31	1-7	5-5	-11	7	10
J. SimsC · #00	36	6	1-5	—	4-6	-7	20	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	7	0	0-3	0-1	—	-9	0	0
A. GreenG · #20	46	15	5-15	5-13	—	-2	8	2
Bench
A. AntetokounmpoF · #29	4	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
C. RyanG · #30	38	25	9-14	4-7	3-3	0	2	4
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	23	8	3-8	2-3	0-2	+2	5	3
Team		113	42-89	17-40	12-16		45	21
DNP: B. Portis, K. Kuzma, M. Turner

DNP: B. Portis, K. Kuzma, M. Turner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	39	19	7-16	2-6	3-4	+6	5	9
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	12	5-15	2-8	—	+11	7	4
A. SengunC · #28	29	25	9-13	2-2	5-6	+6	9	4
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	18	5-10	—	8-8	+12	8	6
R. SheppardG · #15	37	27	9-15	9-14	—	+17	4	6
Bench
J. TateF · #8	3	0	0-1	—	—	-4	0	0
T. EasonF · #17	24	5	1-8	1-7	2-2	-9	2	0
C. CapelaC · #30	8	2	1-2	—	—	-2	5	0
A. HolidayG · #0	13	3	1-3	1-3	—	-11	1	0
J. OkogieG · #20	13	8	3-4	1-2	1-2	+4	1	1
Team		119	41-87	18-42	19-22		42	30
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Davison

DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Davison

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Nov 9

HOU122@

MIL115

Apr 2

MIL113@

HOU119today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -19.5

Between 10 and —

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+12008%

HOU-240096%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -19.5↗SpreadBet HOU -19.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

19.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 30.5

MIL

O. Dieng

Game leader · 45 min30-point game

36 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST

HOU

R. Sheppard

Game leader · 37 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

27 PTS · 4 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

HOU beat MIL 119-113. R. Sheppard paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 38 REB · 14 AST

GS 57

Bench(3)

33 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST

GS 25

HOUstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 33 REB · 29 AST

GS 99

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 2:05 · 106-112

+7pp→ 15% WP

Kevin Durant · personal foul

HOU4th Quarter · 1:06 · 108-112

+6pp→ 95% WP

Cormac Ryan · shooting foul

HOU4th Quarter · 30.5 · 111-116

+8pp→ 96% WP

Jericho Sims · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	20	24	34	35	113
HOU	27	27	31	34	119

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · HOU won 2

Nance 7

Durant 7

Dieng 10

Sheppard 9

Ryan 11

Sengun 11

Dieng 17

Thompson 10

MIL

HOU

Shooting comparison

MIL

HOU

47%

42-89

47%

41-87

43%

17-40

3PT

43%

18-42

75%

12-16

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 436 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 113·HOU 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 113·HOU 119
Q4·1.0
Rockets defensive team rebound
MIL 113·HOU 119
Q4·2.1
Ousmane Dieng misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 113·HOU 119
+0.7pp
Q4·6.3
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
MIL 113·HOU 119
Q4·6.3
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 113·HOU 119
Q4·6.3
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 113·HOU 119
−0.5pp
Q4·6.3
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 113·HOU 118
Q4·6.3
Ousmane Dieng personal take foul
MIL 113·HOU 117
+2pp
Q4·7.5
Cormac Ryan makes two point shot
MIL 113·HOU 117
−2pp
Q4·7.7
Cormac Ryan offensive rebound
MIL 111·HOU 117
Q4·9.8
AJ Green misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
MIL 111·HOU 117
+2pp
Q4·16.1
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 111·HOU 117
Q4·16.1
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
MIL 111·HOU 116
Q4·16.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
MIL 111·HOU 116
−1pp
Q4·16.1
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 111·HOU 116
−0.6pp
Q4·16.1
Cormac Ryan personal foul
MIL 111·HOU 116
+3pp
Q4·23.0
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 111·HOU 116
+1pp
Q4·24.0
Cormac Ryan misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIL 111·HOU 116
+3pp
Q4·27.2
Jabari Smith Jr. bad pass turnover (Ousmane Dieng steals)
·
MIL 111·HOU 116
−3pp
Q4·30.5
enters the game for Tari Eason
MIL 111·HOU 116
Q4·30.5
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
MIL 111·HOU 116
−4pp
Q4·30.5
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 111·HOU 116
Q4·30.5
Jericho Sims misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 111·HOU 116
+8pp
Q4·30.5
Jericho Sims makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 111·HOU 116
−5pp
Q4·30.5
Amen Thompson shooting foul
MIL 110·HOU 116
−3pp
Q4·30.5
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
MIL 110·HOU 116
−2pp
Q4·31.7
Jericho Sims misses tip shot
MIL 110·HOU 116
+2pp
Q4·31.9
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
MIL 110·HOU 116
−2pp
Q4·34.0
Ousmane Dieng misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 110·HOU 116
+2pp

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

42-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-87

FG %

17-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-42

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

HOU -19.5·O/U 216.5·MIL +1200/HOU -2400

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.297
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.295
Kevin DurantHOU · F
TS%64.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
25.0± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL
9.9± 4.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Myles TurnerMIL
1.8± 1.6high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

HOU

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

114.1

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR