NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12ATL

ATL

17-19

11199

23-11

NBAFri, Jan 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -4.5

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Ariel Hukporti

C · #55

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:04

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	30	23	9-16	3-6	2-4	+11	9	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	18	7-14	1-3	3-6	+11	10	11
Z. RisacherF · #10	22	12	4-7	1-3	3-5	+3	5	1
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	23	9-20	3-10	2-4	+8	4	3
D. DanielsG · #5	38	11	5-8	0-1	1-2	+5	6	8
Bench
A. NewellF · #14	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	0	0	1
K. PorzingisC · #8	17	4	1-8	0-3	2-2	+2	8	2
L. KennardG · #3	21	12	4-5	2-3	2-2	+5	3	2
V. KrejciG · #27	29	8	3-8	2-5	—	+15	4	1
Team		111	42-88	12-36	15-25		49	31
DNP: M. Gueye, T. Young, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	35	19	5-13	1-6	8-10	-14	10	1
A. HukportiC · #55	28	8	2-4	—	4-4	+2	16	4
M. BridgesG · #25	35	18	7-19	3-11	1-2	+3	5	5
J. BrunsonG · #11	35	24	10-23	1-8	3-3	-9	2	5
M. McBrideG · #2	31	11	4-14	3-10	—	0	1	2
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	15	8	3-5	0-1	2-2	-7	4	1
T. Jemison IIIF · #50	5	0	—	—	—	-7	1	0
P. DadietF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-1	1	1
M. DiawaraF · #51	7	0	0-3	0-1	—	+5	4	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	14	5	2-8	1-3	—	-15	0	0
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	17	0	0-3	0-1	—	-9	5	6
T. KolekG · #13	17	6	3-5	0-1	—	-8	3	1
Team		99	36-97	9-42	18-21		52	27
DNP: K. Towns

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

Home

42-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-97

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-42

15-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-2

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+15439%

NY-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -4.5↗SpreadBet NY -4.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat NY 111-99. O. Okongwu led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 34 REB · 25 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 17

NYstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 34 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(7)

19 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY1st Quarter · 2:03 · 29-26

+6pp→ 56% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · misses 25-foot three point jumper

NY2nd Quarter · 5:04 · 47-43

+6pp→ 46% WP

Mikal Bridges · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin McCullar Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	33	27	34	17	111
NY	30	17	23	29	99

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · NY won 1

Okongwu 11

Brunson 9

Alexander-Walker 8

Anunoby 5

Alexander-Walker 8

Brunson 9

Kennard 6

Bridges 12

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

48%

42-88

37%

36-97

33%

12-36

3PT

21%

9-42

60%

15-25

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 111·NY 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 111·NY 99
Q4·20.8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
ATL 111·NY 99
Q4·23.4
Miles McBride misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 111·NY 99
Q4·31.0
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 111·NY 99
Q4·31.0
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·31.0
Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·31.0
OG Anunoby personal foul
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·33.0
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·33.0
Jalen Brunson misses driving layup
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·40.2
Onyeka Okongwu vs. Ariel Hukporti (OG Anunoby gains possession)
· ·
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·42.0
Knicks offensive team rebound
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·42.0
Jalen Brunson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·42.0
(00:42) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hawks] retain their timeout
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·42.0
Hawks Coach's Challenge
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·47.1
Onyeka Okongwu makes driving layup (Vit Krejci assists)
·
ATL 110·NY 99
Q4·1:01
Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Onyeka Okongwu steals)
·
ATL 108·NY 99
Q4·1:04
OG Anunoby enters the game for Kevin McCullar Jr.
·
ATL 108·NY 99
Q4·1:04
Onyeka Okongwu vs. Jalen Brunson (Vit Krejci gains possession)
· ·
ATL 108·NY 99
−0.8pp
Q4·1:04
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
ATL 108·NY 99
Q4·1:09
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper
ATL 108·NY 99
Q4·1:29
Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin McCullar Jr. assists)
·
ATL 108·NY 99
+0.7pp
Q4·1:40
Jalen Johnson bad pass turnover (Mikal Bridges steals)
·
ATL 108·NY 96
Q4·1:44
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
ATL 108·NY 96
Q4·1:47
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
ATL 108·NY 96
Q4·1:54
Onyeka Okongwu makes 3-foot layup (Jalen Johnson assists)
·
ATL 108·NY 96
−0.6pp
Q4·2:13
Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin McCullar Jr. assists)
·
ATL 106·NY 96
+0.6pp
Q4·2:32
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 106·NY 93
Q4·2:32
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 105·NY 93
Q4·2:32
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 105·NY 93

Betting line

NY -4.5·O/U 239.5·ATL +154/NY -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into New York Knicks and beat them, 111–99.

ATL +4.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

117.2

PPG

114.9

116.4

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Team pages

Atlanta HawksNew York Knicks

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR