NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHI

ORL

19-16

114121

CHI

17-17

NBAFri, Jan 2FinalSeriesCHI leads series 2-1VegasORL -5.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 23pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	35	31	13-23	2-5	3-7	-7	6	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	32	13	4-12	2-6	3-5	+7	10	1
D. BaneG · #3	38	14	5-12	3-8	1-1	+3	4	4
J. SuggsG · #4	20	11	4-6	1-1	2-2	+15	3	4
A. BlackG · #0	33	18	8-16	2-5	—	-10	2	7
Bench
J. CainF · #8	15	8	2-5	2-3	2-2	-9	3	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	25	7	3-6	1-2	—	-11	3	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	16	5	2-2	—	1-2	-14	4	3
T. JonesG · #2	18	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	2
J. RichardsonG · #11	8	7	2-3	1-1	2-2	-10	0	0
Team		114	43-86	14-32	14-21		36	28
DNP: J. Isaac, N. Penda, J. Howard

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	27	11	4-10	1-6	2-2	+5	10	1
I. OkoroF · #35	30	9	4-8	0-2	1-1	+18	3	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	30	21	6-14	2-8	7-8	+14	9	7
N. VucevicC · #9	35	17	7-11	1-3	2-2	-3	10	5
T. JonesG · #30	29	6	2-7	0-3	2-2	-16	0	5
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	23	15	6-9	3-5	—	-8	2	1
D. TerryF · #7	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	-6	4	2
J. PhillipsF · #15	10	5	2-5	1-2	—	+12	2	0
K. HuerterG · #13	24	20	8-15	4-9	—	+1	4	2
A. DosunmuG · #11	21	17	6-9	2-2	3-4	+18	3	7
Team		121	45-90	14-41	17-19		47	31
DNP: Z. Collins, J. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

43-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

14-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-41

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 2-1

Oct 25

CHI110@

ORL98

Dec 2

CHI120@

ORL125

Jan 3

ORL114@

CHI121today

Apr 11

ORL127@

CHI103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-19866%

CHI+16438%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -5.5↗SpreadBet ORL -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat ORL 121-114. M. Buzelis led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. CHI outscored the other side 30-19 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

CHIstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 32 REB · 19 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

57 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 46

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 32-22

+23pp→ 83% WP

Ayo Dosunmu · enters the game for Dalen Terry

CHI4th Quarter · 7:16 · 102-105

+12pp→ 66% WP

Matas Buzelis · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 1:59 · 110-115

+12pp→ 25% WP

Tre Jones · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	32	27	36	19	114
CHI	22	37	32	30	121

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · CHI won 2

Banchero 9

Huerter 8

Richardson 7

Dosunmu 19

Banchero 12

Buzelis 8

Bane 5

Buzelis 9

ORL

CHI

Shooting comparison

ORL

CHI

50%

43-86

50%

45-90

44%

14-32

3PT

34%

14-41

67%

14-21

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 114·CHI 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 114·CHI 121
Q4·0.1
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 114·CHI 121
Q4·2.2
Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 114·CHI 121
Q4·4.1
Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot dunk (Patrick Williams assists)
· ·
ORL 114·CHI 121
+2pp
Q4·12.5
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
ORL 114·CHI 119
+1pp
Q4·15.7
Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 114·CHI 119
+4pp
Q4·22.8
Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 114·CHI 119
−3pp
Q4·22.8
Patrick Williams enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
ORL 114·CHI 118
Q4·22.8
Matas Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 114·CHI 118
+0.8pp
Q4·22.8
Wendell Carter Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 114·CHI 117
+7pp
Q4·27.9
Kevin Huerter enters the game for Patrick Williams
·
ORL 114·CHI 117
Q4·27.9
Bulls Full timeout
ORL 114·CHI 117
Q4·27.9
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 114·CHI 117
+8pp
Q4·27.9
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
ORL 113·CHI 117
−2pp
Q4·27.9
Tre Jones shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 112·CHI 117
−10pp
Q4·28.9
Magic Full timeout
ORL 112·CHI 117
Q4·28.9
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 112·CHI 117
−3pp
Q4·31.8
Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 112·CHI 117
+5pp
Q4·41.9
Tre Jones makes 16-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 112·CHI 117
+7pp
Q4·1:03
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
ORL 112·CHI 115
+3pp
Q4·1:08
Desmond Bane misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·CHI 115
+7pp
Q4·1:20
Patrick Williams enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
ORL 112·CHI 115
Q4·1:20
Magic offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·CHI 115
−6pp
Q4·1:23
Desmond Bane misses running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·CHI 115
+7pp
Q4·1:25
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 112·CHI 115
−2pp
Q4·1:27
Matas Buzelis misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ORL 112·CHI 115
−5pp
Q4·1:45
Paolo Banchero makes 5-foot two point shot
ORL 112·CHI 115
+5pp
Q4·1:59
Tre Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
ORL 110·CHI 115
−12pp
Q4·2:10
Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ORL 110·CHI 115
−4pp

Betting line

ORL -5.5·O/U 233.5·ORL -198/CHI +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Orlando Magic, 121–114.

CHI +5.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

CHI

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR