NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIL

CHA

11-23

121122

MIL

15-20

NBAFri, Jan 2FinalSeriesMIL wins series 3-1VegasMIL -5.5

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

17.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

33.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 38pp · 4th Quarter · 4.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	37	25	8-17	5-10	4-5	-22	6	2
B. MillerF · #24	30	19	6-15	4-7	3-4	-7	7	4
P. HallC · #16	19	4	1-4	—	2-2	-22	8	1
L. BallG · #1	26	12	4-12	2-7	2-2	-9	2	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	34	26	9-16	3-8	5-7	-2	4	3
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	22	12	4-5	2-3	2-2	+26	4	1
C. SextonG · #8	27	16	5-8	1-2	5-6	+10	0	6
J. GreenG · #10	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	+11	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	27	7	3-4	1-2	—	+6	6	3
L. McNeeleyG · #33	5	0	—	—	—	+4	2	0
Team		121	40-82	18-40	23-28		39	27
DNP: P. Connaughton, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	30	30	11-18	—	8-8	+21	10	5
M. TurnerC · #3	22	1	0-4	0-2	1-2	+6	4	2
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	36	10	4-14	0-4	2-2	+1	4	10
A. GreenG · #20	41	12	4-13	3-10	1-2	+4	0	3
R. RollinsG · #13	37	29	11-13	6-7	1-1	+12	4	8
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	22	20	7-11	4-6	2-2	-8	6	1
K. KuzmaF · #18	32	18	7-10	3-5	1-1	-7	6	1
J. SimsC · #00	2	2	1-1	—	—	-7	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	17	0	0-3	0-3	—	-17	2	1
Team		122	45-87	16-37	16-18		36	31
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

40-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-87

FG %

18-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-37

23-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL wins series 3-1

Nov 13

MIL100@

CHA111

Nov 15

CHA134@

MIL147

Dec 30

MIL123@

CHA113

Jan 3

CHA121@

MIL122today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+19034%

MIL-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -5.5↗SpreadBet MIL -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat CHA 122-121. R. Rollins paced them with 29 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 36

MILstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 22 REB · 28 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST

GS 28

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 10.5 · 118-120

+24pp→ 70% WP

Kyle Kuzma · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 8.8 · 120-120

+24pp→ 70% WP

Kyle Kuzma · shooting foul

MIL4th Quarter · 4.7 · 121-122

+38pp→ 78% WP

Giannis Antetokounmpo · makes alley oop dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	38	22	31	30	121
MIL	24	27	36	35	122

Period scoring

CHA won 1 · MIL won 3

Knueppel 10

Antetokounmpo 10

Knueppel 7

Kuzma 7

Miller 11

Rollins 9

Bridges 10

Antetokounmpo 59

CHA

MIL

Shooting comparison

CHA

MIL

49%

40-82

52%

45-87

45%

18-40

3PT

43%

16-37

82%

23-28

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 121·MIL 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 121·MIL 122
+4pp
Q4·0.8
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 121·MIL 122
−1pp
Q4·0.8
Brandon Miller misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
CHA 121·MIL 122
+19pp
Q4·4.7
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green
· ·
CHA 121·MIL 122
Q4·4.7
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 121·MIL 122
Q4·4.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes alley oop dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHA 121·MIL 122
+38pp
Q4·8.8
AJ Green enters the game for Myles Turner
· ·
CHA 121·MIL 120
Q4·8.8
Bucks Full timeout
CHA 121·MIL 120
Q4·8.8
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CHA 121·MIL 120
+10pp
Q4·8.8
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
· ·
CHA 120·MIL 120
Q4·8.8
Myles Turner enters the game for AJ Green
· ·
CHA 120·MIL 120
Q4·8.8
Bobby Portis enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
·
CHA 120·MIL 120
Q4·8.8
Kyle Kuzma shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 120·MIL 120
−24pp
Q4·8.8
Miles Bridges makes alley oop layup (Sion James assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 120·MIL 120
−16pp
Q4·10.3
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 118·MIL 120
Q4·10.5
Kyle Kuzma makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 118·MIL 120
+24pp
Q4·29.8
Miles Bridges makes 1-foot two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 118·MIL 117
−9pp
Q4·45.7
Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHA 116·MIL 117
+18pp
Q4·52.3
Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
·
CHA 116·MIL 114
+3pp
Q4·55.6
Brandon Miller misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHA 116·MIL 114
+8pp
Q4·1:12
Miles Bridges defensive rebound
CHA 116·MIL 114
−3pp
Q4·1:16
AJ Green misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
CHA 116·MIL 114
−8pp
Q4·1:34
Brandon Miller offensive foul turnover
CHA 116·MIL 114
Q4·1:34
Brandon Miller offensive foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 116·MIL 114
+10pp
Q4·1:41
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes alley oop layup (Ryan Rollins assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHA 116·MIL 114
+7pp
Q4·1:53
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 116·MIL 112
+5pp
Q4·1:53
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 115·MIL 112
−2pp
Q4·1:53
AJ Green personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
CHA 114·MIL 112
−11pp
Q4·1:57
Kyle Kuzma bad pass turnover (LaMelo Ball steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 114·MIL 112
−10pp

Betting line

MIL -5.5·O/U 233.5·CHA +190/MIL -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Charlotte Hornets, 122–121. It came down to the final possession.

CHA +5.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

MIL

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR