POR
15-20
NO
8-28
POR · top performer
Deni Avdija
F · #8
34
Pts
7
Reb
11
Ast
NO · top performer
Zion Williamson
F · #1
35
Pts
8
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 1:40
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 34 | 14 | 4-11 | 4-11 | 2-3 | +10 | 6 | 4 | |
| 26 | 6 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 4-5 | +19 | 4 | 3 | |
| 38 | 34 | 10-19 | 3-5 | 11-14 | +14 | 7 | 11 | |
| 30 | 11 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | +15 | 15 | 1 | |
| 31 | 23 | 9-18 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -2 | 6 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 22 | 7-13 | 6-11 | 2-2 | +3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-4 | — | +8 | 0 | 3 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 122 | 41-92 | 16-47 | 24-30 | 46 | 27 | ||
| DNP: J. Grant, D. Reath, J. Holiday, M. Thybulle, B. Wesley | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 35 | 15-26 | — | 5-8 | -17 | 8 | 2 | |
| 21 | 5 | 2-4 | — | 1-1 | -4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 30 | 16 | 5-16 | 4-11 | 2-3 | -1 | 1 | 6 | |
| 24 | 13 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 3-4 | -25 | 4 | 0 | |
| 29 | 18 | 8-15 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -5 | 5 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 12 | 2 | |
| 20 | 16 | 7-8 | 2-3 | — | -11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 21 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -13 | 3 | 4 | |
| 24 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-5 | — | +12 | 3 | 2 | |
| 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 109 | 44-98 | 8-30 | 13-18 | 42 | 22 | ||
| DNP: D. Jordan, T. Alexander | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
45
27
Ast
22
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
NO
Home
41-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-98
45
FG %
45
16-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-30
24-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-18
27
Assists
22
9
Turnovers
15
Season series
POR leads series 2-1
POR125@NO117POR120@NO143POR122@NO109todayNO106@POR118Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
240.5
High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR-16262%NO+13642%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
240.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat NO 122-109. D. Avdija paced them with 34 PTS, 7 REB, 11 AST. POR outscored the other side 34-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
NO vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST
GS 80
Bench(5)
34 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
GS 27
NOstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST
GS 68
Bench(5)
22 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST
GS 16
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBryce McGowens · enters the game for Jeremiah Fears
Donovan Clingan · vs. Kevon Looney (Deni Avdija gains possession)
Jose Alvarado · bad pass turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 29 | 34 | 22 | 37 | 122 |
| NO | 37 | 18 | 20 | 34 | 109 |
Period scoring
POR won 3 · NO won 1
Q1
Avdija 13
Matkovic 10
Q2
Avdija 10
Williamson 12
Q3
Sharpe 4
Poole 4
Q4
Love 12
Poole 12
Shooting comparison
45%
41-92
FG
45%
44-98
34%
16-47
3PT
27%
8-30
80%
24-30
FT
72%
13-18
Play-by-play · 507 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 122·NO 109
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 122·NO 109
- Q4·9.4
Micah Peavy makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
POR 122·NO 109
- Q4·13.4
Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)
·
POR 122·NO 107
- Q4·34.6
Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Fears assists)
· ·
POR 119·NO 107
- Q4·40.0
Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·43.0
Micah Peavy misses 23-foot three point jumper
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·47.0
Zion Williamson defensive rebound
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·49.1
Deni Avdija misses 18-foot floating jump shot
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·1:11
(01:11) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·1:11
Deni Avdija defensive goaltending violation
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·1:11
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup
POR 119·NO 104
- Q4·1:16
Shaedon Sharpe makes two point shot
POR 119·NO 102
- Q4·1:16
Shaedon Sharpe offensive rebound
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:18
Toumani Camara misses 22-foot three point jumper
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:35
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:40
Jeremiah Fears misses driving floating jump shot
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:41
Micah Peavy offensive rebound
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:44
Jordan Poole misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:46
Pelicans offensive team rebound
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:46
Robert Williams III blocks Zion Williamson 's 3-foot driving layup
·
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:55
Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 117·NO 102
- Q4·1:55
Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 116·NO 102
- Q4·1:55
Jordan Poole personal foul
·
POR 115·NO 102
- Q4·2:14
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1
POR 115·NO 102
- Q4·2:14
Toumani Camara shooting foul
POR 115·NO 101
- Q4·2:14
Zion Williamson makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
POR 115·NO 101
- Q4·2:23
Pelicans defensive team rebound
POR 115·NO 99
- Q4·2:26
Shaedon Sharpe misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 115·NO 99
- Q4·2:40
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
POR 115·NO 99
Betting line
POR -3.5·O/U 240.5·POR -162/NO +136
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 122–109.
POR -3.5 cashed (won by 13). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 9.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Karlo MatkovicNO · FTS%69.698- Zion WilliamsonNO · FDRIVES13.796
Shaedon SharpePOR · GUSG%29.996
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NO vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
- Jeremiah FearsNO19.9± 10.9high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Dejounte MurrayNO1.6± 0.9low
- Jeremiah FearsNO1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
NO
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶46.6%
114.6
PPG
114.9
115.5
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.1
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.5