NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7LAL

MEM

15-19

121128

LAL

21-11

NBAFri, Jan 2FinalSeriesLAL lead series 2-0VegasLAL -5.5

MEM · top performer

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

G · #3

17.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 59.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	30	25	12-15	0-3	1-5	-27	1	2
C. CowardF · #23	24	5	2-10	0-3	1-1	-29	7	5
J. WellsF · #0	28	6	2-11	2-8	—	-2	1	2
C. KolokoC · #35	22	3	1-3	—	1-2	-11	2	0
J. MorantG · #12	31	16	7-18	0-3	2-3	-21	3	11
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	30	15	5-12	3-9	2-2	+6	7	3
GG JacksonF · #45	15	12	4-7	3-6	1-2	-5	1	2
J. LandaleC · #31	20	14	5-7	1-2	3-4	+16	5	0
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	23	20	6-10	4-6	4-4	+24	5	2
C. SpencerG · #24	17	5	2-3	1-2	—	+14	2	5
Team		121	46-96	14-42	15-23		34	32
DNP: J. Konchar, V. Williams Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	36	31	12-18	1-5	6-6	+11	9	6
J. LaRaviaF · #12	37	21	8-12	3-6	2-3	0	9	2
D. AytonC · #5	25	4	2-4	—	—	-1	6	0
M. SmartG · #36	34	13	5-9	3-6	—	+18	8	7
L. DoncicG · #77	38	34	8-18	1-7	17-20	+3	6	8
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	20	5	2-4	1-3	—	-6	2	1
D. KnechtF · #4	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	+8	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	23	12	5-6	—	2-2	+8	2	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	16	8	3-4	2-3	—	-6	0	2
Team		128	45-77	11-32	27-31		42	26
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Timme, B. James, C. Manon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

46-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-77

FG %

14-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

15-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 2-0

Nov 1

LAL117@

MEM112

Jan 3

MEM121@

LAL128today

Jan 5

MEM114@

LAL120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+17037%

LAL-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat MEM 128-121. L. Doncic paced them with 34 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST. LAL outscored the other side 39-31 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 45% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 14 REB · 20 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

66 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 58

LALstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

103 PTS · 38 REB · 23 AST

GS 87

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM1st Quarter · 59.7 · 30-33

+16pp→ 33% WP

Cedric Coward · makes 3-foot two point shot

MEM1st Quarter · 1:32 · 28-33

+13pp→ 28% WP

Jaren Jackson Jr. · bad pass turnover (Jarred Vanderbilt steals)

MEM4th Quarter · 7:51 · 106-105

+12pp→ 64% WP

Jaxson Hayes · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	31	29	36	25	121
LAL	39	27	30	32	128

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · LAL won 2

Aldama 9

Coward 17

Landale 7

Morant 29

Caldwell-Pope 12

Doncic 15

Jr. 8

James 10

MEM

LAL

Shooting comparison

MEM

LAL

48%

46-96

58%

45-77

33%

14-42

3PT

34%

11-32

65%

15-23

87%

27-31

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 121·LAL 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 121·LAL 128
Q4·5.2
Ja Morant personal foul
MEM 121·LAL 128
Q4·10.3
Santi Aldama makes 2-foot driving dunk (Ja Morant assists)
·
MEM 121·LAL 128
Q4·12.9
Luka Doncic bad pass turnover (Ja Morant steals)
·
MEM 119·LAL 128
Q4·28.2
Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)
·
MEM 119·LAL 128
Q4·35.0
LeBron James makes driving layup (Jake LaRavia assists)
· ·
MEM 116·LAL 128
Q4·37.3
Jake LaRavia offensive rebound
MEM 116·LAL 126
Q4·39.8
Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 116·LAL 126
Q4·52.3
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
MEM 116·LAL 126
Q4·55.0
Santi Aldama misses 27-foot three point jumper
MEM 116·LAL 126
Q4·1:01
Jaxson Hayes makes dunk (LeBron James assists)
· ·
MEM 116·LAL 126
+0.8pp
Q4·1:13
Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Ja Morant assists)
· ·
MEM 116·LAL 124
Q4·1:20
Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)
· ·
MEM 114·LAL 124
+2pp
Q4·1:37
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 114·LAL 121
+2pp
Q4·1:37
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 113·LAL 121
−0.5pp
Q4·1:37
Jake LaRavia shooting foul
MEM 112·LAL 121
−3pp
Q4·1:46
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 112·LAL 121
Q4·1:46
Santi Aldama vs. LeBron James (Ja Morant gains possession)
· ·
MEM 112·LAL 121
Q4·1:47
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
MEM 112·LAL 121
+0.9pp
Q4·1:57
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope enters the game for Cedric Coward
·
MEM 112·LAL 121
−0.9pp
Q4·1:57
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 112·LAL 121
Q4·1:57
LeBron James makes driving layup
·
MEM 112·LAL 121
+2pp
Q4·2:11
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
MEM 112·LAL 119
+0.7pp
Q4·2:14
Ja Morant misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 112·LAL 119
+2pp
Q4·2:26
Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MEM 112·LAL 119
+9pp
Q4·2:51
Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound
MEM 112·LAL 116
+2pp
Q4·2:53
Jaylen Wells misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 112·LAL 116
+5pp
Q4·2:59
Santi Aldama enters the game for Jock Landale
·
MEM 112·LAL 116
Q4·2:59
LeBron James enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
· ·
MEM 112·LAL 116

Betting line

LAL -5.5·O/U 241.5·MEM +170/LAL -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Memphis Grizzlies, 128–121.

LAL -5.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Ja MorantPOR · G
DRIVES15.798
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Santi AldamaDAL · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

LAL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.8

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR