NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10SA

25-9

123113

IND

6-29

NBAFri, Jan 2FinalSeriesSA leads series 1-0VegasSA -4.5

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 7:29

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	21	5	1-7	1-6	2-2	-15	3	0
J. ChampagnieF · #30	25	9	2-13	2-11	3-4	-6	8	1
L. KornetC · #7	27	9	3-3	—	3-4	+10	5	3
D. FoxG · #4	32	24	10-19	2-9	2-3	+7	7	4
S. CastleG · #5	33	19	6-17	1-3	6-7	+11	8	8
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	20	10	4-6	1-3	1-2	+4	5	3
L. Waters IIIF · #43	14	7	2-4	2-4	1-1	+21	3	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	26	16	6-9	3-3	1-2	+19	6	1
C. BryantF · #11	11	2	1-5	0-4	—	-5	2	1
D. HarperG · #2	29	22	9-15	1-3	3-3	+4	2	1
Team		123	44-98	13-46	22-28		49	23
DNP: J. Sochan, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	36	23	10-18	0-2	3-3	-3	9	5
M. PotterC · #33	28	16	5-10	4-8	2-2	+4	6	1
A. NembhardG · #2	36	19	7-10	2-3	3-5	-4	6	6
A. NesmithG · #23	29	9	3-6	1-2	2-2	+2	3	3
B. MathurinG · #00	20	2	1-6	0-1	—	-12	5	3
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	11	11	4-6	2-2	1-1	-10	0	0
J. HuffC · #32	20	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	-16	2	2
T.J. McConnellG · #9	18	14	7-13	0-2	—	-4	2	3
E. ThompsonG · #55	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
B. SheppardG · #26	17	8	3-6	2-3	—	-17	3	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
K. JonesG · #7	10	2	1-3	0-1	—	+16	1	1
T. PeterG · #4	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. FurphyG · #12	14	7	3-6	1-4	—	-12	2	1
Team		113	44-86	12-30	13-15		39	26
DNP: T. Bradley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

44-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-86

FG %

13-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-30

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 1-0

Jan 3

SA123@

IND113today

Mar 22

IND119@

SA134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-20567%

IND+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -4.5↗SpreadBet SA -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat IND 123-113. D. Harper led with 22 PTS, 2 REB, 1 AST. SA outscored the other side 41-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 47

Bench(5)

57 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 49

INDstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 52

Bench(9)

44 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 35

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND1st Quarter · 7:29 · 7-16

+7pp→ 56% WP

Luke Kornet · lost ball turnover (Micah Potter steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	30	41	22	30	123
IND	31	27	27	28	113

Period scoring

SA won 2 · IND won 2

Castle 9

Nembhard 12

Harper 9

Walker 9

Fox 8

Siakam 8

Johnson 10

Siakam 9

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

45%

44-98

51%

44-86

28%

13-46

3PT

40%

12-30

79%

22-28

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 123·IND 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 123·IND 113
Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
SA 123·IND 113
Q4·27.7
Kam Jones makes 7-foot two point shot
SA 123·IND 113
Q4·37.3
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 123·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Carter Bryant enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Ethan Thompson enters the game for Johnny Furphy
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Quenton Jackson enters the game for Pascal Siakam
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Kam Jones enters the game for Micah Potter
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Taelon Peter enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin
·
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 122·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Aaron Nesmith loose ball foul
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·37.3
Spurs defensive team rebound
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·39.4
Bennedict Mathurin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Kam Jones
·
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Pacers Full timeout
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Luke Kornet makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 121·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 120·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Luke Kornet misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 120·IND 111
Q4·40.6
Micah Potter personal foul
SA 120·IND 111
Q4·1:01
Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
·
SA 120·IND 111
Q4·1:05
Stephon Castle lost ball turnover (Andrew Nembhard steals)
·
SA 120·IND 109
Q4·1:20
Pascal Siakam lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)
·
SA 120·IND 109
Q4·1:37
Stephon Castle makes 4-foot two point shot (Dylan Harper assists)
·
SA 120·IND 109
−0.7pp
Q4·1:53
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 118·IND 109
−0.8pp
Q4·1:53
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 118·IND 108
Q4·1:53
Luke Kornet shooting foul
SA 118·IND 107
+1pp
Q4·2:07
De'Aaron Fox makes 30-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)
·
SA 118·IND 107
−4pp

Betting line

SA -4.5·O/U 239.5·SA -205/IND +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 123–113.

SA -4.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
16.8± 8.1high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
6.1± 2.4high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

IND

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR