St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 1, 2026

STL

68-70

PregameTue, 10:10 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV

LAD

82-55

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LAD +1.0 vs STL -2.4 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Michael McGreevy

SP · #36

5-9

W-L

3.86

ERA

1.25

WHIP

142.1

Last 3 starts

vsBAL-5.0 IP7 ER3 K

@CIN-5.1 IP3 ER4 K

@CHCW(5-9)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

Home starter

Eric Lauer

SP · #33

8-6

W-L

4.78

ERA

1.26

WHIP

105.1

Last 3 starts

@ATL-2.0 IP1 ER1 K

@COLW(8-6)5.0 IP4 ER6 K

vsKCW(7-6)6.1 IP1 ER6 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob38% / 62%

LeanHome · 12pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs STL.

LAD is 6-4 recently; STL is 3-7.

61.8%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

LAD6–4+1.0
STL3–7-2.4

Situational

LAD2d rest
STL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 6 straight road games; STL has 0.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.3.
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.4.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.1.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
62.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.3%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 104 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.6± 2.4high
Blake SnellLAD
7.2± 3.5low
Tyler GlasnowLAD
7.0± 3.1low

Hits

Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 0.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 1.0high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Jordan WalkerSTL
2.0± 1.9high
Max MuncyLAD
1.6± 2.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.5± 1.0high

RBIs

Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.7± 0.8high
Max MuncyLAD
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 2.5high
Michael McGreevySTL
2.7± 2.4high
Quinn MathewsSTL
2.7± 3.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

LAD

.696

OPS

.718

▶

.757

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.335

4.42

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.89

4.23

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.62

1.34

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.16

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

The One modelEdge

Tue, Sep 1

STL

Cardinals

80-75

vs61.8%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

97-69

STL 38.2%win prob61.8% LAD

LAD 1552 · STL 1489Box score→

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

The matchup, end-to-end.

LAD vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league