Recent form
5-5
TEX +0.2 vs ATH -1.3 margin
TEX brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Athletics at Texas Rangers
ATH
ATH
53-85
PregameTue, 8:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
TEX
TEX
68-70
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
TEX no-vig %
63.6%
open 61.6% · +2.0
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
B
Brady Basso
RP · #66
0-1
W-L
4.50
ERA
1.39
WHIP
22
K
28.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBAL-1.0 IP0 ER1 K
vsBALL(0-1)1.0 IP1 ER2 K
vsMIN-2.0 IP0 ER0 K
Home starter
MacKenzie Gore
SP · #1
7-10
W-L
4.40
ERA
1.28
WHIP
165
K
149.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHWL(7-10)3.2 IP4 ER4 K
vsLAA-6.0 IP0 ER7 K
@ATHW(7-9)5.2 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+163 / -199
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTEX leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs ATH.
TEX is 5-5 recently; ATH is 4-6.
63.4%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX5–5+0.2
- ATH4–6-1.3
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- ATH1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; ATH has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2strikeouts · ±2.9
Jacob deGrom · 6.2 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.0strikeouts · ±2.0
MacKenzie Gore · 6 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 5.9.
- Jacob LopezATH5.2strikeouts · ±2.5
Jacob Lopez · 5.2 K · last-10 5.8 vs season 4.4.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
TEX is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14TEX @ ATH3–8
- 2026-08-15TEX @ ATH5–3
- 2026-08-16TEX @ ATH2–5
- 2026-08-31ATH @ TEX1–8
Line move
open -181→-199toward TEX
The market has moved 2.1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.4%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
66.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.08 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 112 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.2± 2.9high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.0± 2.0high
- Gage JumpATH5.7± 3.7medium
Hits
- Ezequiel DuranTEX1.2± 1.2high
- Henry BolteATH1.0± 1.3high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.0± 1.0high
Total bases
- Ezequiel DuranTEX2.0± 2.1high
- Brian ServenATH1.7± 2.4medium
- Justin FoscueTEX1.7± 2.1high
RBIs
- Brian ServenATH0.9± 1.2medium
- Ezequiel DuranTEX0.8± 1.1high
- Lawrence ButlerATH0.7± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.9± 1.9high
- Gage JumpATH3.3± 2.7medium
- Kade MorrisATH3.2± 4.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
TEX
.717
OPS
.718
.714
.318
OBP
.318
.317
4.33
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.07
5.45
Team ERA
4.16
▶4.26
1.50
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1ATH
Athletics
62-99
vs63.3%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
84-79
ATH 36.7%win prob63.3% TEX
TEX 1488 · ATH 1395Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsRays9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- GiantsPirates9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysGuardians9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesNationals9/1 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox9/1 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsRoyals9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros9/1 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies9/1 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels9/1 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks9/1 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsDodgers9/1 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
