Recent form
2-8
SEA -4.9 vs LA -5.6 margin
SEA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Los Angeles Sparks at Seattle Storm
LA
LA
14-25
PregameSun, 5:00 PM EDTKOMO-TV, Prime Video-Seattle, WNBA League Pass
SEA
SEA
8-31
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Seattle Storm Sunday at 8/30 - 5:00 PM EDT. SEA is 2-3 in their last 5.
Vegas opened SEA as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 172.5. SEA's moneyline implies a 53% break-even, LA the inverse. SEA comes in with 2 extra days of rest.
For bettors: the SEA side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 172.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
47
FG %
43
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Jun 11LA88@SEA83
LA88@SEA83Jul 7SEA82@LA64
SEA82@LA64Aug 30LA@SEAtoday
LA@SEAtodayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SEA -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
172.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-10551%SEA-11553%5· 4.6h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
172.5
0.0 since open
Scouting report
LA @ SEA
Rest going in
SEA +2 days
LAStandard
1 day
last game Aug 28
SEALong rest
3 days
last game Aug 26
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
SEA -1.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
172.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
SEA -115
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
LAmetricSEA
14-25
Record
8-31
#6
Conf rank
#8
-5.0
Pt diff
-5.1
W1
Streak
W1
3-7
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
SEA -1.5·O/U 172.5·LA -105/SEA -115
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs LA.
SEA is 2-8 recently; LA is 3-7.
51.4%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA2–8-4.9
- LA3–7-5.6
Situational
- SEA4d rest
- LA2d rest
- +2.0d differential
SEA has 2 more rest days. SEA has 0 straight road games; LA has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Dominique MalongaSEA17.4points · ±6.7
Dominique Malonga · 17.4 pts · last-10 18.1 vs season 16.5.
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.7points · ±5.5
Nneka Ogwumike · 16.7 pts · last-10 16.6 vs season 16.9.
- Rae BurrellLA16.0points · ±5.3
Rae Burrell · 16 pts · last-10 17.2 vs season 14.1.
Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5
SEA is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-08-02LA @ SEA108–106
- 2025-08-11SEA @ LA91–94
- 2025-09-02LA @ SEA91–85
- 2026-06-10LA @ SEA88–83
- 2026-07-06SEA @ LA82–64
Line move
open -115→-110toward LA
The market has moved 1.1pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.0%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
48.1%
P(SEA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
49.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.60 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at SEA?
- The model favors LA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
LA
no live price
SEA
no live price
| Book | LA | SEA | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 | +0.2 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
SEA vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 95 high confidence
Points
- Dominique MalongaSEA17.4± 6.7high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.7± 5.5high
- Rae BurrellLA16.0± 5.3high
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA9.4± 3.0high
- Nneka OgwumikeLA8.6± 3.4high
- Dearica HambyLA5.6± 1.9high
Assists
- Natisha HiedemanSEA5.5± 2.5high
- Erica WheelerLA4.9± 2.7high
- Jade MelbourneSEA4.1± 2.5high
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.9± 1.5high
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.5± 1.2high
- Ezi MagbegorSEA1.3± 1.9low
Steals
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.9± 1.1high
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.4± 1.1high
- Dearica HambyLA1.1± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA