Recent form
6-4
HOU +0.6 vs CHW -0.4 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
CHW
CHW
72-65
PregameTue, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
70-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Line movement
24 snapshots
HOU spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
HOU no-vig %
47.3%
open 47.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Burke
SP · #59
7-6
W-L
3.32
ERA
1.15
WHIP
161
K
149.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEX-3.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsNYM-6.0 IP4 ER4 K
@DET-4.1 IP4 ER2 K
Home starter
Ronel Blanco
SP · #56
0-1
W-L
7.71
ERA
1.46
WHIP
20
K
23.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER3 K
@SD-4.2 IP3 ER1 K
vsTEX-4.2 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-123 / +102
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesHOU leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take HOU on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs CHW.
HOU is 6-4 recently; CHW is 6-4.
58.9%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU6–4+0.6
- CHW6–4-0.4
Situational
- HOU1d restB2B
- CHW1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; CHW has 4.
Model angle
+11.6ppon HOU
HOU's edge is mostly model confidence plus travel burden. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Travel burden+1.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3strikeouts · ±3.3
Sean Burke · 6.3 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.
- Peter LambertHOU5.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Peter Lambert · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.5.
- Anthony KayCHW4.4strikeouts · ±1.2
Anthony Kay · 4.4 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
HOU is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-26HOU @ CHW3–12
- 2026-08-31CHW @ HOU3–6
Line move
open +102→+102flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.4%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
53.4%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.11 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3± 3.3high
- Peter LambertHOU5.6± 2.3high
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.5medium
Hits
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 0.6high
- Jeremy PenaHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Tristan PetersCHW2.3± 2.9high
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.1± 1.9high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.7± 0.8high
- Tristan PetersCHW0.7± 1.1high
- Colson MontgomeryCHW0.6± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW3.0± 1.7high
- Ethan PeckoHOU3.0± 2.3low
- Anthony KayCHW2.4± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
HOU
.727
OPS
.718
.726
.319
OBP
.318
.316
4.78
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.57
4.16
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.61
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.36
8.4
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1CHW
White Sox
88-72
vs58.9%HOU
HOU★
Astros
88-77
CHW 41.1%win prob58.9% HOU
HOU 1525 · CHW 1525Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
