Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies
BAL
BAL
69-69
PregameTue, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
COL
COL
52-86
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCoors Field · Denver, Colorado
Line movement
200 snapshots
COL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 11.0
open O/U 11.0
COL no-vig %
43.9%
open 43.7% · +0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kyle Bradish
SP · #38
7-12
W-L
4.03
ERA
1.41
WHIP
133
K
143.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@STL-4.1 IP7 ER4 K
vsNYYL(7-12)5.2 IP3 ER5 K
@TB-6.0 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Gabriel Hughes
SP · #43
0-6
W-L
6.61
ERA
1.45
WHIP
38
K
47.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@WSHL(0-6)5.0 IP4 ER3 K
vsCLEL(0-5)5.0 IP3 ER2 K
@SF-4.0 IP7 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 11
Money-144 / +119
Model edge
Win prob65% / 35%
LeanAway · 15pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBAL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take BAL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
COL vs BAL.
COL has dropped 5 straight; BAL is 8-2 over its last 10.
34.9%
model · COL win prob
Recent form
- COL2–8-1.3
- BAL8–2+1.9
Situational
- COL1d restB2B
- BAL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; BAL has 7.
Model angle
+8.7ppon BAL
BAL's edge is mostly recent form plus model confidence. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+1.3pp
- ▲Recent form+3.4pp
- ▲Model confidence+3.2pp
Players to watch
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
- Shane BazBAL5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.1.
- Brandon YoungBAL4.6strikeouts · ±1.3
Brandon Young · 4.6 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.5.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
COL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-31BAL @ COL2–1
Line move
open +119→+118flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.7%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
41.1%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.0%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.8%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.39 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
COL vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Shane BazBAL5.2± 3.1high
- Brandon YoungBAL4.6± 1.3high
Hits
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.1± 0.9high
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.1± 0.6high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.0± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.0± 2.8high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL1.9± 1.9high
- Gunnar HendersonBAL1.7± 3.6high
RBIs
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.8± 1.5high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL0.7± 1.1high
- Coby MayoBAL0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.7± 2.4high
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.1low
- Tomoyuki SuganoCOL3.4± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
COL
.715
OPS
.718
▶.737
.318
OBP
.318
▶.323
4.55
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.67
4.17
Team ERA
◀
4.16
5.47
1.34
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.52
8.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One model★ Lock
Tue, Sep 1BAL★
Orioles
73-91
vs65.1%BAL
COL
Rockies
58-100
BAL 65.1%win prob34.9% COL
BAL 1490 · COL 1403Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsRays9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- GiantsPirates9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysGuardians9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesNationals9/1 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox9/1 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsRoyals9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers9/1 - 8:05 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros9/1 - 8:10 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels9/1 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks9/1 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsDodgers9/1 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
