Recent form
8-2
CLE +2.4 vs TOR +0.3 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
TOR
TOR
68-70
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CLE
CLE
69-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Spencer Arrighetti
SP · #45
7-7
W-L
4.81
ERA
1.36
WHIP
95
K
95.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsKCL(7-7)4.0 IP3 ER4 K
@NYYL(7-6)3.1 IP3 ER4 K
@CHW-1.0 IP3 ER0 K
Home starter
Gavin Williams
SP · #32
12-7
W-L
3.98
ERA
1.12
WHIP
204
K
156.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAA-1.1 IP5 ER3 K
vsSFW(12-7)5.2 IP2 ER11 K
vsSDL(11-7)4.1 IP5 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesTOR leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs TOR.
CLE is 8-2 recently; TOR is 6-4.
61.2%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE8–2+2.4
- TOR6–4+0.3
Situational
- CLE2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; TOR has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.4 K · last-10 8.3 vs season 8.5.
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2strikeouts · ±3.2
Gavin Williams · 8.2 K · last-10 8.7 vs season 7.6.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.5
Joey Cantillo · 5.4 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.2%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
60.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.59 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 116 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.4± 2.6high
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.2± 3.2high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.4± 2.5high
Hits
- Brett BatemanTOR1.4± 1.4medium
- Steven KwanCLE1.2± 1.5high
- George SpringerTOR1.2± 1.4high
Total bases
- George SpringerTOR2.0± 2.5high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR1.8± 2.1high
- Nathan LukesTOR1.8± 2.0high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE1.0± 1.9high
- Alejandro KirkTOR0.7± 1.0high
- Nathan LukesTOR0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.5± 3.8low
- Spencer ArrighettiTOR3.5± 2.9medium
- Michael LorenzenTOR3.3± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
CLE
.690
OPS
.718
.686
.308
OBP
.318
▶.315
3.97
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.07
3.94
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.73
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.26
8.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1TOR
Blue Jays
72-99
vs61.2%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
89-74
TOR 38.8%win prob61.2% CLE
CLE 1530 · TOR 1478Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
