New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 1, 2026

NYY

78-59

PregameTue, 9:38 PM EDTMLB.TV

LAA

52-85

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Angel Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

NYY +2.3 vs LAA +0.3 margin

NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gerrit Cole

SP · #45

7-7

W-L

3.19

ERA

1.07

WHIP

105

98.2

Last 3 starts

vsHOUL(7-7)6.0 IP3 ER5 K

@BALW(7-6)6.0 IP1 ER8 K

@TORL(6-6)6.0 IP1 ER5 K

Home starter

Grayson Rodriguez

SP · #21

4-5

W-L

6.03

ERA

1.52

WHIP

71.2

Last 3 starts

vsCLE-5.2 IP1 ER4 K

@HOUW(4-5)7.0 IP0 ER6 K

vsKC-4.0 IP3 ER5 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob78% / 22%

LeanAway · 28pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 2-2

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

LAA vs NYY.

LAA has dropped 7 straight; NYY is 6-4 over its last 10.

21.8%

model · LAA win prob

Recent form

LAA2–8+0.3
NYY6–4+2.3

Situational

LAA2d rest
NYY2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; NYY has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp

Players to watch

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Cam Schlittler · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.2.
Reid DetmersLAA
6.3strikeouts · ±2.4
Reid Detmers · 6.3 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 6.4.
Walbert UrenaLAA
4.7strikeouts · ±1.7
Walbert Urena · 4.7 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 4.7.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

19.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
34.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
30.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
33.4%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.6± 2.4high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.7± 2.3medium
Reid DetmersLAA
6.3± 2.4high

Hits

Zach NetoLAA
1.3± 1.4high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
1.3± 1.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Zach NetoLAA
2.5± 3.1high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
2.5± 3.0high
Ben RiceNYY
1.7± 1.4high

RBIs

Zach NetoLAA
0.9± 2.1high
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY
0.8± 1.1high
Vaughn GrissomLAA
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Luis GilNYY
3.3± 3.4low
Yusei KikuchiLAA
3.1± 2.9low
Grayson RodriguezLAA
2.9± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

LAA

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.680

.311

OBP

.318

.309

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

3.21

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.28

1.17

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

9.0

K / 9

8.5

9.1

The One model★ Lock

Tue, Sep 1

NYY★

Yankees

89-71

vs78.2%NYY

LAA

Angels

60-100

NYY 78.2%win prob21.8% LAA

NYY 1543 · LAA 1406Box score→

Team pages

New York YankeesLos Angeles Angels

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

The matchup, end-to-end.

LAA vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league