Recent form
8-2
ATL +0.7 vs SF +0.2 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
SF
SF
56-81
PregameMon, 6:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATL
ATL
82-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTruist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
ATL no-vig %
59.3%
open 56.1% · +3.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Anthony Molina
RP · #45
1-0
W-L
2.89
ERA
0.96
WHIP
3
K
9.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCINW(1-0)4.1 IP0 ER1 K
vsSF-2.0 IP2 ER0 K
@NYM-1.0 IP1 ER2 K
Home starter
Bryce Elder
SP · #55
8-7
W-L
3.95
ERA
1.24
WHIP
118
K
143.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAD-6.0 IP3 ER5 K
vsARI-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsNYML(8-7)5.0 IP7 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+147 / -158
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSF leads series 4-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
ATL vs SF.
ATL enters on a 7-game win streak; SF is 4-6 over its last 10.
63.7%
model · ATL win prob
Recent form
- ATL8–2+0.7
- SF4–6+0.2
Situational
- ATL1d restB2B
- SF2d rest
- -1.0d differential
SF has 1 more rest day. ATL has 0 straight road games; SF has 0.
Model angle
+3.5ppon ATL
ATL's edge is mostly venue split plus line steam. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Venue split+1.6pp
- ▲Line steam+1.4pp
- ▲Recent form+1.3pp
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.6strikeouts · ±2.7
Chris Sale · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.4.
- Tyler MahleATL5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Tyler Mahle · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.3.
- Bryce ElderATL4.6strikeouts · ±1.6
Bryce Elder · 4.6 K · last-10 4.5 vs season 4.7.
Line move
open -142→-163toward ATL
The market has moved 3.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.7%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
67.5%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.82 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.6± 2.7high
- Tyler MahleATL5.5± 2.5high
- Bryce ElderATL4.6± 1.6high
Hits
- Mauricio DubonATL1.3± 0.8high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.2± 1.0high
- Michael Harris IIATL1.2± 0.7high
Total bases
- Rafael DeversSF2.3± 1.9high
- Michael Harris IIATL2.2± 1.8high
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.0± 2.1high
RBIs
- Michael Harris IIATL0.8± 1.0high
- Bryce EldridgeSF0.8± 1.3high
- Rafael DeversSF0.8± 1.1high
Earned runs
- AJ Smith-ShawverATL3.0± 1.4low
- Bryce ElderATL2.9± 2.6high
- Logan WebbSF2.8± 2.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
ATL
.712
OPS
.718
▶.724
.307
OBP
.318
▶.312
4.09
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.64
4.35
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.55
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.24
7.7
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelEdge
Mon, Aug 31SF
Giants
75-92
vs63.7%ATL
ATL★
Braves
96-66
SF 36.3%win prob63.7% ATL
ATL 1549 · SF 1446Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsRays8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers8/31 - 8:05 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros8/31 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies8/31 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels8/31 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks8/31 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
