Recent form
5-5
WSH +0.3 vs ATL +0.1 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
ATL
ATL
82-56
PregameTue, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV
WSH
WSH
66-74
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Line movement
200 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 10.0
open O/U 9.5 · +0.5
WSH no-vig %
39.5%
open 39.2% · +0.3
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP · #32
0-0
W-L
5.93
ERA
1.61
WHIP
10
K
13.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAD-5.0 IP3 ER3 K
@MIN-4.1 IP4 ER3 K
@NYM-4.1 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Jake Irvin
SP · #27
2-8
W-L
5.62
ERA
1.40
WHIP
82
K
81.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOL-4.1 IP1 ER6 K
@MIAL(2-8)6.0 IP4 ER4 K
@NYML(2-7)6.0 IP4 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 10
Money-177 / +146
Model edge
Win prob61% / 39%
LeanAway · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATL leads series 8-3
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take ATL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs ATL.
WSH is 5-5 recently; ATL is 7-3.
39.2%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH5–5+0.3
- ATL7–3+0.1
Situational
- WSH1d restB2B
- ATL1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; ATL has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Chris SaleATL7.6strikeouts · ±2.7
Chris Sale · 7.6 K · last-10 7.8 vs season 7.4.
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8strikeouts · ±2.7
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.1.
- Tyler MahleATL5.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Tyler Mahle · 5.5 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.3.
Head-to-head · 0-4 · last 4
WSH is 0-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-30WSH @ ATL4–5
- 2026-07-31WSH @ ATL2–6
- 2026-08-01WSH @ ATL3–8
- 2026-08-02WSH @ ATL2–4
Line move
open +144→+142toward WSH
The market has moved 0.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
39.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
43.2%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.5%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.12 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chris SaleATL7.6± 2.7high
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8± 2.7high
- Tyler MahleATL5.5± 2.5high
Hits
- Drake BaldwinATL1.3± 1.0high
- Michael Harris IIATL1.3± 0.7high
- Daylen LileWSH1.3± 1.2high
Total bases
- Daylen LileWSH2.8± 3.1high
- Michael Harris IIATL2.4± 1.9high
- Drake BaldwinATL2.0± 1.6high
RBIs
- Daylen LileWSH1.1± 1.8high
- Michael Harris IIATL0.8± 0.9high
- Brady HouseWSH0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Jake IrvinWSH3.1± 2.1medium
- AJ Smith-ShawverATL3.0± 1.4low
- Jackson KentWSH3.0± 2.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
WSH
.723
OPS
.718
▶.756
.312
OBP
.318
▶.325
4.63
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.19
3.58
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.66
1.25
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.39
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1ATL★
Braves
96-67
vs60.8%ATL
WSH
Nationals
77-81
ATL 60.8%win prob39.2% WSH
ATL 1543 · WSH 1471Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsRays9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- GiantsPirates9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysGuardians9/1 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox9/1 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsRoyals9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs9/1 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers9/1 - 8:05 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros9/1 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies9/1 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels9/1 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks9/1 - 9:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsDodgers9/1 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
