Recent form
3-7
MIN -1.3 vs DET -1.8 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
DET
DET
63-73
PregameTue, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIN
MIN
65-72
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketTarget Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Troy Melton
SP · #52
7-3
W-L
1.86
ERA
1.01
WHIP
80
K
97.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTBL(7-3)7.0 IP3 ER4 K
@KCL(7-2)5.2 IP3 ER3 K
vsCHW-4.1 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Connor Prielipp
SP · #61
3-7
W-L
5.55
ERA
1.39
WHIP
106
K
99.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATH-5.1 IP3 ER5 K
@SDL(3-7)6.0 IP6 ER7 K
vsPHIL(3-6)5.0 IP8 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesMIN wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIN vs DET.
MIN is 3-7 recently; DET is 2-8.
59.7%
model · MIN win prob
Recent form
- MIN3–7-1.3
- DET2–8-1.8
Situational
- MIN2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIN has 0 straight road games; DET has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±3.0
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.5.
- Framber ValdezDET3.9strikeouts · ±2.8
Framber Valdez · 3.9 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 4.3.
- Bailey OberMIN3.7strikeouts · ±1.9
Bailey Ober · 3.7 K · last-10 3.6 vs season 3.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.2%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
56.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.17 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 101 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 3.0high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.7± 2.4medium
- Troy MeltonDET5.3± 2.4medium
Hits
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.2± 1.4medium
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.2± 0.8high
- Brooks LeeMIN1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Brooks LeeMIN2.2± 2.4high
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.9± 1.9medium
- Kody ClemensMIN1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Josh BellMIN0.8± 1.1high
- Kody ClemensMIN0.8± 1.1high
- Brett CallahanDET0.6± 1.1low
Earned runs
- Connor PrielippMIN3.4± 2.3medium
- Dean KremerMIN3.3± 3.3low
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.1± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
MIN
.713
OPS
.718
▶.723
.315
OBP
.318
.318
4.38
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.57
3.58
Team ERA
◀
4.16
4.65
1.22
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.38
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.4
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1DET
Tigers
66-88
vs59.7%MIN
MIN★
Twins
87-78
DET 40.3%win prob59.7% MIN
MIN 1494 · DET 1471Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
