Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
NYM
NYM
61-76
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
82-54
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Manaea
RP · #59
4-6
W-L
4.55
ERA
1.32
WHIP
120
K
122.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMILL(4-6)5.2 IP6 ER3 K
@CHW-6.0 IP4 ER4 K
vsWSH-6.1 IP4 ER7 K
Home starter
Freddy Peralta
SP · #51
6-11
W-L
5.11
ERA
1.41
WHIP
133
K
141.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@DETW(6-11)6.0 IP0 ER4 K
@BALL(5-11)7.0 IP5 ER6 K
vsBALL(5-10)4.2 IP2 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/31
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs NYM.
TB enters on a 4-game win streak; NYM is 4-6 over its last 10.
63.4%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB6–4+0.5
- NYM4–6-0.9
Situational
- TB2d rest
- NYM2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; NYM has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Nolan McLean · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.4.
- Christian ScottNYM5.9strikeouts · ±1.6
Christian Scott · 5.9 K · last-10 6 vs season 5.7.
- Ian SeymourTB5.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.3 K · last-10 6.8 vs season 3.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.4%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
66.8%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.8%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.33 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.2high
- Christian ScottNYM5.9± 1.6high
- Ian SeymourTB5.3± 2.8high
Hits
- Carson BengeNYM1.3± 1.1high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.2± 0.8high
- Junior CamineroTB1.2± 0.5high
Total bases
- Carson BengeNYM2.0± 2.0high
- Luis Robert Jr.NYM1.9± 2.7high
- Junior CamineroTB1.9± 1.0high
RBIs
- Junior CamineroTB0.7± 0.5high
- Carson BengeNYM0.5± 0.8high
- Jared YoungNYM0.5± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Robert StockNYM3.4± 5.1low
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.2± 2.5high
- Sean ManaeaNYM2.6± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
TB
.695
OPS
.718
▶.733
.306
OBP
.318
▶.329
4.10
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.53
4.08
Team ERA
4.16
▶3.77
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelEdge
Tue, Sep 1NYM
Mets
71-88
vs63.4%TB
TB★
Rays
110-54
NYM 36.6%win prob63.4% TB
TB 1583 · NYM 1486Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
