Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 26, 2026

CIN

62-70

PregameWed, 3:45 PM EDTMLB.TV

53-78

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

94 total idx

Oracle Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

3-7

SF -1.1 vs CIN -1.9 margin

SF brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Nick Lodolo

SP · #40

3-3

W-L

5.04

ERA

1.52

WHIP

75.0

Last 3 starts

@ARIL(3-3)3.1 IP6 ER2 K

vsMIA-5.0 IP0 ER2 K

@CHW-4.0 IP4 ER5 K

Home starter

Landen Roupp

SP · #65

7-13

W-L

4.34

ERA

1.31

WHIP

130

134.2

Last 3 starts

@CLEL(7-13)5.1 IP3 ER2 K

vsCOLL(7-12)5.2 IP4 ER5 K

vsDETL(7-11)5.1 IP1 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob43% / 57%

LeanHome · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSF leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SF vs CIN.

SF is 3-7 recently; CIN is 3-7.

57.4%

model · SF win prob

Recent form

SF3–7-1.1
CIN3–7-1.9

Situational

SF2d rest
CIN2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. SF has 0 straight road games; CIN has 4.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.5 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.5pp

Players to watch

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
Brady SingerCIN
4.6strikeouts · ±1.4
Brady Singer · 4.6 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 4.3.
Landen RouppSF
4.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Landen Roupp · 4.5 K · last-10 4.1 vs season 5.2.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

SF is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-24CIN @ SF0–5

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.1%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Brady SingerCIN
4.6± 1.4high
Landen RouppSF
4.5± 2.0high

Hits

Sal StewartCIN
1.2± 0.8high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.0± 1.3high
JJ BledayCIN
0.9± 1.4high

Total bases

Elly De La CruzCIN
1.7± 2.5high
Matt McLainCIN
1.7± 2.5high
Sal StewartCIN
1.7± 1.2high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.8± 1.1high
Matt McLainCIN
0.6± 1.3high
Rafael DeversSF
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.6± 2.7low
Brady SingerCIN
2.9± 1.1high
Andrew AbbottCIN
2.7± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.696

OPS

.719

▶

.710

.306

OBP

.318

.305

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

4.52

Team ERA

4.16

▶

4.32

1.41

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.36

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

The One modelLean

Wed, Aug 26

CIN

Reds

71-82

vs57.4%SF

SF★

Giants

72-89

CIN 42.6%win prob57.4% SF

SF 1444 · CIN 1452Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

The matchup, end-to-end.

SF vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league