Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at NY?

The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

22-10

PregameSun, 12:30 PM EDTABC

19-13

ATS/NY -9.5O/U/178.5ML/NY-440

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LV +7.1 vs NY -0.6 margin

LV brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+3.0 days

NY 4 rest vs LV 1

NY has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+119.5

NY Elo vs LV Elo

LV owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing NY uphill early today again.

WNBASun, Aug 98/9 - 12:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasNY -9.5

Preview · WNBA

as Vegas Aces visit New York Liberty Sunday at 8/9 - 12:30 PM EDT. LV is 5-3 in their last 8. NY arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-1 in their last 7).

Vegas opened NY as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. NY's moneyline implies a 81% break-even, LV the inverse. LV is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the NY side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 65 over 6hjust now

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 24

NY87@

LV76

Jul 31

NY99@

LV104

Aug 9

LV@

NYtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

178.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV+34023%

NY-44081%

65· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -9.5↗SpreadBet NY -9.5↗

Line movement · 181 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

+8.0 since open

Total

178.5

-6.0 since open

Scouting report

LV @ NY

8/9 - 12:30 PM EDT

StorylineNY on a 3-game roll.

Rest going in

NY +3 days

LVB2B

0 days

last game Aug 8

NYLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 5

Model edge vs market

Mild edge

Spread

Market

NY -9.5

Model

NY -8.4

Edge

-1.1 pts

Total

Market

178.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

NY -440

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LVmetricNY

22-10

Record

19-13

Conf rank

+4.8

Pt diff

+2.6

Streak

6-4

Last 10

6-4

67.0

Power score

75.4

Power rank

83.3

Sched ahead

69.4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

NY -9.5·O/U 178.5·LV +340/NY -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

NY vs LV.

NY enters on a 3-game win streak; LV is 6-4 over its last 10.

33.3%

model · NY win prob

Recent form

NY6–4-0.6
LV6–4+7.1

Situational

NY4d rest
LV1d restB2B
+3.0d differential

NY has 3 more rest days. NY has 0 straight road games; LV has 4.

Model angle

+44.9ppon LV

LV's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

▼Line steam-1.8pp
▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▼Travel burden-1.1pp

Players to watch

A'ja WilsonLV
25.7points · ±8.4
A'ja Wilson · 25.7 pts · last-10 25.8 vs season 25.6.
Breanna StewartNY
21.9points · ±7.9
Breanna Stewart · 21.9 pts · last-10 22.8 vs season 20.6.
Jackie YoungLV
19.8points · ±7.6
Jackie Young · 19.8 pts · last-10 21.1 vs season 18.

Head-to-head · 3-2 · last 5

NY is 3-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-09LV @ NY78–87
2025-08-14NY @ LV77–83
2026-06-23NY @ LV87–76
2026-06-30LV @ NY85–93
2026-07-30NY @ LV99–104

Line move

open -110→-440toward NY

The market has moved 29.1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

34.7%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
43.1%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
46.5%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like LV.

LV's edge is driven by model confidence. Line steam keeps it from reading cleaner.

+44.9

pp edge · LV

-28.19

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on LV

76.4%

±8.0pp band

5u large — +53.7pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+54.6pp

+9.7pp post-cal

Kelly

69.5%

5.0% sized

Decimal

4.40

+53.7pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 44.9pp · LV over NY

▼
Line steam90% conf
The market moved 28.2pp away from LV since open.
-1.8pp
▲
Model confidence90% conf
LV clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
LV is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▼
Venue split66% conf
NY's venue form trims LV's edge by 20.5pp.
-1.0pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
NY has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.9pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
NY has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

-110

Close price

+340

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

21.8%

Market faded the model hard

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at NY?: The model favors LV, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NY vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.7± 8.4high
Breanna StewartNY
21.9± 7.9high
Jackie YoungLV
19.8± 7.6high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.2± 3.6high
Jonquel JonesNY
9.1± 3.1high
Breanna StewartNY
9.0± 2.8high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
6.9± 2.4high
Jackie YoungLV
6.2± 3.8high
Sabrina IonescuNY
5.1± 2.2high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
2.0± 1.1high
Breanna StewartNY
1.7± 0.9high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Chelsea GrayLV
1.3± 1.3high
A'ja WilsonLV
1.2± 0.9high
Jewell LoydLV
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesNew York Liberty

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty

NY vs LV.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like LV.

NY vs LV.