Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at CHI?

The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

IND

19-12

PregameSat, 3:30 PM EDTABC

CHI

12-19

ATS/IND -5.5O/U/192.5ML/IND-225

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

IND +9.6 vs CHI +0.5 margin

IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

CHI 3 rest vs IND 2

CHI has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+195.8

CHI Elo vs IND Elo

IND owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBASat, Aug 88/8 - 3:30 PM EDTSeriesIND leads series 1-0VegasIND -5.5

Preview · WNBA

ndiana Fever visit Chicago Sky Saturday at 8/8 - 3:30 PM EDT. IND is 4-2 in their last 6. CHI is 3-3 in their last 6.

Vegas opened IND as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 192.5. CHI's moneyline implies a 35% break-even, IND the inverse.

For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 192.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

FG %

Season series

IND leads series 1-0

Jun 11

CHI106@

IND114

Aug 8

IND@

CHItoday

Aug 23

IND@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

192.5

High-scoring · +27.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-22569%

CHI+18535%

5· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -5.5↗SpreadBet IND -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

-1.0 since open

Total

192.5

-2.0 since open

Scouting report

IND @ CHI

8/8 - 3:30 PM EDT

Rest going in

CHI +1 day

INDStandard

1 day

last game Aug 6

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 5

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

IND -5.5

Model

IND -24.0

Edge

+18.5 pts

Total

Market

192.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

IND -225

Model

IND

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

INDmetricCHI

19-12

Record

12-19

Conf rank

+5.6

Pt diff

-1.6

Streak

7-3

Last 10

5-5

75.3

Power score

51.3

Power rank

53.1

Sched ahead

72.2

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

IND -5.5·O/U 192.5·IND -225/CHI +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CHI vs IND.

CHI is 5-5 recently; IND is 7-3.

23.2%

model · CHI win prob

Recent form

CHI5–5+0.5
IND7–3+9.6

Situational

CHI3d rest
IND2d rest
+1.0d differential

CHI has 1 more rest day. CHI has 0 straight road games; IND has 0.

Model angle

+10.5ppon IND

IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Head to head+0.6pp
▼Rest advantage-0.3pp

Players to watch

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2points · ±4.8
Kelsey Mitchell · 26.2 pts · last-10 28 vs season 23.5.
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.9points · ±10.0
Caitlin Clark · 21.9 pts · last-10 22.8 vs season 20.5.
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5points · ±6.0
Sydney Taylor · 17.5 pts · last-10 19.3 vs season 14.7.

Head-to-head · 0-5 · last 5

CHI is 0-5 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-08IND @ CHI79–52
2025-07-27IND @ CHI93–78
2025-08-10CHI @ IND70–92
2025-09-05CHI @ IND77–97
2026-06-11CHI @ IND106–114

Line move

open +180→+185toward IND

The market has moved 0.6pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

24.3%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
32.7%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Recent
33.2%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
36.2%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like IND.

IND's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+10.5

pp edge · IND

+0.62

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on IND

84.8%

±9.0pp band

5u large — +15.6pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+18.4pp

+7.9pp post-cal

Kelly

50.6%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.44

+15.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 10.5pp · IND over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
IND clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
IND has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.6pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CHI has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp

Open price

-218

Close price

-225

Open no-vig

65.7%

Close no-vig

66.4%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at CHI?: The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHI vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2± 4.8high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.9± 10.0high
Sydney TaylorCHI
17.5± 6.0high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.3± 3.6high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.5± 3.5high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.8± 2.1high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.6± 2.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.0± 3.2low

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.5± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 0.8high

Steals

Aliyah BostonIND
1.7± 1.6high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.3± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky

CHI vs IND.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like IND.

CHI vs IND.