MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

41-28

PregameWed, 3:10 PM EDT

LAD

46-27

ATS/LAD -1.5O/U/7.5ML/LAD-181

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Recent form

6-4

LAD +0.9 vs TB +0.2 margin

LAD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Line movement

7 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAD no-vig %

61.6%

open 63.6% · -2.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Shane McClanahan

SP · #18

6-4

W-L

3.23

ERA

1.17

WHIP

64.0

Last 3 starts

@LAAL(6-4)4.0 IP4 ER7 K

@MIAL(6-3)5.0 IP4 ER6 K

vsLAAW(6-2)5.0 IP1 ER3 K

Home starter

Shohei Ohtani

DH · #17

6-2

W-L

1.06

ERA

0.84

WHIP

67.2

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money+149 / -181

Model edge

Win prob39% / 61%

LeanHome · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesLAD lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-181Bet LAD ML↗-181Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

LAD vs TB.

LAD is 6-4 recently; TB is 5-5.

60.9%

model · LAD win prob

Recent form

LAD6–4+0.9
TB5–5+0.2

Situational

LAD2d rest
TB2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAD has 0 straight road games; TB has 4.

Model angle

No actionable edge surfaced.

Players to watch

Griffin JaxTB
2.9strikeouts · ±1.6
Griffin Jax · 2.9 K · last-10 3.4 vs season 2.1.
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3total bases · ±2.0
Shohei Ohtani · 2.3 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.1.
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9total bases · ±1.7
Freddie Freeman · 1.9 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

LAD is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-15TB @ LAD3–4

Line move

open -199→-181toward TB

The market has moved 2.1pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
59.7%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.3%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.05

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+163

Close price

+149

Open no-vig

36.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Market steamed in our direction

Player projections

LAD vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high
Max MuncyLAD
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.720

OPS

.717

▶

.787

.336

OBP

.319

▶

.345

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

3.96

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.36

1.24

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

The One modelEdge

Wed, Jun 17

Rays

54-28

vs60.9%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

52-32

TB 39.1%win prob60.9% LAD

LAD 1589 · TB 1545Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take LAD on the model side.

LAD vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAD vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

LAD vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.