Starter edge
3.56 ERA
Kumar Rocker vs Zebby Matthews - 5.20 ERA
Rocker owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving TEX cleaner opening script tonight.
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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
MIN
MIN
34-40
PregameTue, 8:05 PM EDT
TEX
TEX
35-37
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.76
Z. Matthews
2-4 · 5.20 ERA
vs
K. Rocker
2-5 · 3.56 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
TEX spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
TEX no-vig %
56.3%
open 56.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Zebby Matthews
SP · #52
2-4
W-L
5.20
ERA
1.18
WHIP
30
K
36.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@DETL(2-4)6.0 IP7 ER4 K
vsKCW(2-3)7.0 IP2 ER2 K
@PITL(1-3)4.1 IP7 ER7 K
Home starter
Kumar Rocker
SP · #80
2-5
W-L
3.56
ERA
1.34
WHIP
52
K
65.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@KC-4.2 IP2 ER3 K
vsCLE-5.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsKC-6.0 IP0 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+104 / -126
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesMIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take TEX on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
MIN
- 1.T. LarnachLF
- 2.B. BuxtonCF
- 3.K. ClemensRF
- 4.R. Lewis1B
- 5.J. BellDH
- 6.B. Lee3B
- 7.L. Keaschall2B
- 8.T. GraySS
- 9.A. JacksonC
TEX
- 1.J. PedersonDH
- 2.J. Jung3B
- 3.W. LangfordLF
- 4.B. NimmoRF
- 5.E. DuranSS
- 6.J. Burger1B
- 7.J. Smith2B
- 8.A. OsunaCF
- 9.E. DiazC
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs MIN.
TEX is 5-5 recently; MIN is 5-5.
57.5%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX5–5-0.5
- MIN5–5-1.4
Situational
- TEX1d restB2B
- MIN1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; MIN has 1.
Model angle
+4.3ppon TEX
TEX's edge is driven by venue split. Model confidence keeps it from reading cleaner. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Venue split+1.2pp
- ▼Model confidence-0.5pp
Players to watch
- Byron BuxtonMIN3.1total bases · ±2.7
Byron Buxton · 3.1 TB · last-10 3.5 vs season 2.5.
- Josh BellMIN1.9total bases · ±1.9
Josh Bell · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.4.
- Kody ClemensMIN1.9total bases · ±1.4
Kody Clemens · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.7.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
TEX is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15MIN @ TEX4–2
Line move
open -143→-143flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.3%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
57.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.96 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 83 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob deGromTEX6.4± 3.2low
- Joe RyanMIN6.3± 2.9medium
- Taj BradleyMIN5.9± 2.4low
Hits
- Byron BuxtonMIN1.3± 1.2high
- Josh JungTEX1.1± 0.7high
- Josh BellMIN1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Byron BuxtonMIN3.1± 2.7high
- Josh BellMIN1.9± 1.9high
- Kody ClemensMIN1.9± 1.4high
RBIs
- Josh BellMIN0.9± 1.1high
- Byron BuxtonMIN0.8± 0.9high
- Brooks LeeMIN0.5± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.5± 3.9low
- Jack LeiterTEX3.1± 2.7low
- Connor PrielippMIN2.9± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
TEX
.715
OPS
◀
.717
.699
.316
OBP
.319
.316
4.62
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.99
4.82
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.79
1.38
WHIP
1.31
▶1.22
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16MIN
Twins
42-43
vs57.5%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
38-40
MIN 42.5%win prob57.5% TEX
TEX 1495 · MIN 1470Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
