MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Suárez homered to left center (376 feet), Stewart scored. → win prob 74→86% CIN

TOP 9TH+12CIN

NYM

32-39

012

CIN

33-37

MLB · At bat

Top 91-11 out

Pitcher· CIN

C. Petty

1.2 IP, 0 ER

Batter· NYM

B. Bichette

3-4, 1 K

LastPitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

79.4%

CIN wins · current

Pre-game: 50.2% NYM

NYM 0 · 12 CIN

CIN +12

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsCIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCINBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 86% WP
Suárez homered to left center (376 feet), Stewart scored.

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.19

T. Myers

0-1 · 4.05 ERA

C. Burns

7-1 · 2.14 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.1% · +0.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.4%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+47.9ppvs pre-game · CIN favored

Leverage

±2.6

pp · next play

low · 5/100

Mostly decided · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.19

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+35.9pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best

+940DraftKings

edge +35.9pp · implied 14.3%

CIN

no live price

Book	NYM	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+940★	-136	+35.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

CIN vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.3± 2.9medium

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.3± 1.2high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 1.0high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Bo BichetteNYM
2.4± 2.5high
Juan SotoNYM
1.9± 2.2high
JJ BledayCIN
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high
Juan SotoNYM
0.6± 0.7high
JJ BledayCIN
0.5± 0.5high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CIN

.665

OPS

.717

▶

.708

.295

OBP

.319

▶

.313

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

3.93

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.62

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

The One modelTossup

● Live

NYM★

Mets

35-42

vs50.2%NYM

CIN

Reds

39-41

NYM 50.2%win prob49.8% CIN

NYM 1487 · CIN 1471Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.256	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.246	4	0	3	0	0	0	1
J. SotoLF	.290	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. Young1B	.253	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A.J. EwingCF	.259	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Semien2B	.215	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Baty3B	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. MelendezDH	.202	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. AlvarezC	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.215	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	6	0	0	6	10

Player

.256

.246

.290

.253

.259

.215

.227

.202

.238

.100

.167

.215

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MyersRP	1.1	4	7	7	3	1	43
J. PintaroRP	3.2	3	2	2	0	4	55
D. PetersonSP	3.0	2	3	3	2	1	54
Team	8.0	9	12	12	5	6	152

Player

T. MyersRP

1.1

J. PintaroRP

3.2

D. PetersonSP

3.0

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DunnRF	.265	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.272	4	2	2	4	1	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.247	4	2	1	1	0	1	0
S. SteerLF	.248	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
E. SuarezDH	.222	4	2	2	6	2	0	2
N. MarteRF	.203	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.208	1	2	0	0	0	2	1
T. StephensonC	.211	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
E. ArroyoSS	.219	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	12	9	12	3	5	6