Starter edge
4.83 ERA
Slade Cecconi vs Robert Gasser - 6.38 ERA
Cecconi owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving CLE cleaner opening script tonight.
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Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers
CLE
CLE
39-33
PregameTue, 7:40 PM EDT
MIL
MIL
43-26
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 11.21
S. Cecconi
3-5 · 4.83 ERA
vs
R. Gasser
0-3 · 6.38 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
MIL no-vig %
58.3%
open 58.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Slade Cecconi
SP · #44
3-5
W-L
4.83
ERA
1.44
WHIP
61
K
72.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYY-5.0 IP2 ER7 K
@NYY-6.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsBOS-4.1 IP3 ER3 K
Home starter
Robert Gasser
SP · #54
0-3
W-L
6.38
ERA
1.58
WHIP
19
K
18.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATHL(0-3)5.0 IP6 ER7 K
vsSFL(0-2)5.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsLADL(0-1)4.1 IP4 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+130 / -157
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCLE wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
CLE
- 1.T. Bazzana2B
- 2.B. RocchioSS
- 3.R. HoskinsDH
- 4.D. FryRF
- 5.K. Manzardo1B
- 6.S. FairchildCF
- 7.S. KwanLF
- 8.G. Arias3B
- 9.A. HedgesC
MIL
- 1.C. YelichDH
- 2.J. ChourioLF
- 3.B. Turang2B
- 4.W. ContrerasC
- 5.J. BauersRF
- 6.A. Vaughn1B
- 7.G. MitchellCF
- 8.C. PrattSS
- 9.D. Hamilton3B
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs CLE.
MIL is 6-4 recently; CLE is 4-6.
64.1%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4+2.0
- CLE4–6-0.9
Situational
- MIL2d rest
- CLE3d rest
- -1.0d differential
CLE has 1 more rest day. MIL has 0 straight road games; CLE has 0.
Model angle
+5.8ppon MIL
MIL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+0.9pp
- ▲Venue split+0.4pp
Players to watch
- Jackson ChourioMIL3.5total bases · ±3.4
Jackson Chourio · 3.5 TB · last-10 4.2 vs season 2.5.
- Jake BauersMIL2.1total bases · ±2.3
Jake Bauers · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
- Brice TurangMIL1.9total bases · ±2.5
Brice Turang · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.7.
Line move
open -156→-156flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.4%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
62.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.5%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.5%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.64 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 88 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.6± 3.1low
- Gavin WilliamsCLE7.0± 3.5low
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.4± 5.2low
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.7± 1.4high
- Christian YelichMIL1.2± 0.8high
- William ContrerasMIL1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Jackson ChourioMIL3.5± 3.4high
- Jake BauersMIL2.1± 2.3high
- Brice TurangMIL1.9± 2.5high
RBIs
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.1± 1.5high
- Jake BauersMIL1.1± 1.5high
- Andrew VaughnMIL0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Robert GasserMIL3.3± 3.0low
- Slade CecconiCLE2.8± 2.5low
- Brandon SproatMIL2.7± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
MIL
.689
OPS
.717
▶.736
.317
OBP
.319
▶.341
4.01
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.36
3.75
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.45
1.26
WHIP
1.31
▶1.21
9.3
K / 9
8.5
▶9.8
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16CLE
Guardians
44-40
vs64.2%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
48-27
CLE 35.8%win prob64.2% MIL
MIL 1581 · CLE 1517Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
