MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

37-34

PregameTue, 7:45 PM EDT

STL

39-31

ATS/SD -1.5O/U/8ML/STL-114

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.34

M. King

4-5 · 3.46 ERA

A. Pallante

7-4 · 3.88 ERA

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Starter edge

3.46 ERA

Michael King vs Andre Pallante - 3.88 ERA

King owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving SD cleaner opening script tonight.

Park factor

98 total idx

Busch Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

STL +2.7 vs SD -0.3 margin

STL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

STL no-vig %

51.0%

open 50.0% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Michael King

SP · #34

4-5

W-L

3.46

ERA

1.15

WHIP

80.2

Last 3 starts

vsCIN-6.2 IP3 ER3 K

vsNYML(4-5)6.0 IP4 ER4 K

@WSHL(4-4)6.0 IP5 ER2 K

Home starter

Andre Pallante

SP · #53

7-4

W-L

3.88

ERA

1.26

WHIP

69.2

Last 3 starts

@NYMW(7-4)6.0 IP2 ER5 K

vsTEXW(6-4)5.2 IP1 ER5 K

vsCHC-3.0 IP4 ER3 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money-106 / -114

Model edge

Win prob43% / 57%

LeanHome · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take STL on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-114Bet STL ML↗-114Bet STL ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

1.F. Tatis Jr.2B
2.J. MerrillCF
3.M. Machado3B
4.X. BogaertsSS
5.G. SheetsLF
6.S. TaylorRF
7.T. France1B
8.W. WagnerDH
9.R. DuranC

STL

1.J. Wetherholt2B
2.I. HerreraC
3.A. Burleson1B
4.J. WalkerRF
5.L. NootbaarLF
6.M. WinnSS
7.J. CrooksDH
8.B. Jordan3B
9.N. ChurchCF

Scouting report · pre-game

STL vs SD.

STL is 7-3 recently; SD is 5-5.

56.6%

model · STL win prob

Recent form

STL7–3+2.7
SD5–5-0.3

Situational

STL1d restB2B
SD1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; SD has 4.

Model angle

+5.8ppon STL

STL's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Head to head is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.3pp
▲Venue split+2.4pp
▲Travel burden+1.7pp

Players to watch

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8total bases · ±1.7
Alec Burleson · 2.8 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 2.
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6total bases · ±1.8
Jordan Walker · 2.6 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.2.
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.7total bases · ±1.8
Fernando Tatis Jr. · 1.7 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.3.

Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3

STL is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-09STL @ SD2–4
2026-05-10STL @ SD2–3
2026-06-15SD @ STL0–3

Line move

open -110→-114toward STL

The market has moved 0.9pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.8%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like STL.

STL's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Head to head is the main caution flag.

+5.8

pp edge · STL

+0.98

CLV pp

2.1u · medium

on STL

57.1%

±5.3pp band

2.05u medium — +3.8pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+6.2pp

+0.4pp post-cal

Kelly

8.2%

2.0% sized

Decimal

1.88

+3.8pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.8pp · STL over SD

▲
Venue split70% conf
STL's venue form is 40pp stronger in the recent sample.
+2.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
SD is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.7pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
STL grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+1.4pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward STL since open.
+0.6pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
SD has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.3pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market came to the model

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.8pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

no live price

STL

★ best

-114DraftKings

edge +5.8pp · implied 50.9%

Book	SD	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	-106	-114★	+5.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.2low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 0.8high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Blaze JordanSTL
2.5± 4.2low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.9low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.2low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

STL

.652

OPS

.717

▶

.722

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.83

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.60

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

The One modelLean

Tue, Jun 16

Padres

38-35

vs56.7%STL

STL★

Cardinals

42-32

SD 43.3%win prob56.7% STL

STL 1521 · SD 1501Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.279	269	75	24	2	64
J. MerrillCF	.205	259	53	27	7	68
M. Machado3B	.177	254	45	35	12	63
X. BogaertsSS	.226	235	53	27	8	49
G. Sheets1B	.228	206	47	30	11	53
S. TaylorLF	.357	28	10	8	1	9
T. France1B	.252	135	34	18	6	38
W. Wagner3B	.333	12	4	0	0	3
R. DuranC	.162	37	6	6	3	10
Team		--	--	--	--	--

Player

F. Tatis Jr.RF

.279

269

J. MerrillCF

.205

259

M. Machado3B

.177

254

X. BogaertsSS

.226

235

G. Sheets1B

.228

206

S. TaylorLF

.357

T. France1B

.252

135

W. Wagner3B

.333

R. DuranC

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--	--	--	--

Player

M. KingSP

--.--

Team

--.--

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take STL on the model side.

Top of the order, top of mind.

STL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like STL.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

STL vs SD.

Where to bet this game.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like STL.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.251	255	64	31	10	50
I. HerreraDH	.264	258	68	31	9	50
A. Burleson1B	.287	272	78	52	13	47
J. WalkerRF	.297	273	81	56	18	76
L. NootbaarLF	.257	35	9	5	2	10
M. WinnSS	.232	233	54	26	2	55
J. CrooksC	.214	28	6	6	1	8
B. Jordan1B	.333	15	5	4	1	2
N. ChurchLF	.254	169	43	18	5	42
Team		--	--	--	--	--

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

The mound matchup

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take STL on the model side.

Top of the order, top of mind.

STL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like STL.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

STL vs SD.

Where to bet this game.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like STL.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers