Starter edge
5.61 ERA
Brady Singer vs Kodai Senga - 9.00 ERA
Singer owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving CIN cleaner opening script tonight.
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New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
NYM
NYM
32-40
PregameTue, 7:10 PM EDT
CIN
CIN
34-37
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 14.61
K. Senga
0-4 · 9.00 ERA
vs
B. Singer
2-6 · 5.61 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketGreat American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
Line movement
200 snapshots
CIN spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.0 · +0.5
CIN no-vig %
46.8%
open 46.8%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kodai Senga
SP · #34
0-4
W-L
9.00
ERA
1.95
WHIP
23
K
20.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCOLL(0-4)2.2 IP3 ER1 K
@CHCL(0-3)3.1 IP6 ER3 K
vsATHL(0-2)2.1 IP7 ER3 K
Home starter
Brady Singer
SP · #51
2-6
W-L
5.61
ERA
1.64
WHIP
47
K
61.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SD-6.0 IP2 ER5 K
@STLL(2-6)4.0 IP1 ER6 K
vsATLL(2-5)5.0 IP3 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 10
Money-122 / +101
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesCIN leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
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Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
NYM
- 1.C. BengeRF
- 2.B. BichetteSS
- 3.J. SotoDH
- 4.J. Young1B
- 5.A.J. EwingCF
- 6.M. Semien2B
- 7.B. Baty3B
- 8.M. MelendezLF
- 9.F. AlvarezC
CIN
- 1.B. DunnCF
- 2.J. BledayLF
- 3.S. Stewart1B
- 4.N. LoweDH
- 5.E. Suarez3B
- 6.S. SteerRF
- 7.T. StephensonC
- 8.M. McLainSS
- 9.E. Arroyo2B
Scouting report · pre-game
CIN vs NYM.
CIN is 3-7 recently; NYM is 5-5.
52.2%
model · CIN win prob
Recent form
- CIN3–7-0.5
- NYM5–5-1.0
Situational
- CIN1d restB2B
- NYM1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CIN has 0 straight road games; NYM has 1.
Model angle
+4.6ppon CIN
CIN's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. The signals lean the same way. Weather and park add about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.4pp
- ▲Model confidence+0.9pp
- ▲Head to head+0.2pp
Players to watch
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5total bases · ±2.5
Bo Bichette · 2.5 TB · last-10 3.1 vs season 1.5.
- JJ BledayCIN2.1total bases · ±1.8
JJ Bleday · 2.1 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.2.
- Eugenio SuarezCIN1.8total bases · ±2.6
Eugenio Suarez · 1.8 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
CIN is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-25CIN @ NYM7–2
- 2026-05-26CIN @ NYM7–2
- 2026-05-27CIN @ NYM2–4
- 2026-06-15NYM @ CIN0–12
Line move
open +104→+104flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.7%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
52.8%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.8%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.92 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CIN vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN7.1± 2.8low
- Nolan McLeanNYM6.1± 2.7low
- Freddy PeraltaNYM5.3± 2.9medium
Hits
- Bo BichetteNYM1.3± 1.0high
- Blake DunnCIN1.1± 0.9high
- Carson BengeNYM1.0± 1.5high
Total bases
- Bo BichetteNYM2.5± 2.5high
- JJ BledayCIN2.1± 1.8high
- Eugenio SuarezCIN1.8± 2.6high
RBIs
- Eugenio SuarezCIN0.8± 1.8high
- Bo BichetteNYM0.8± 1.9high
- JJ BledayCIN0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kodai SengaNYM4.0± 3.2low
- Chris PaddackCIN3.2± 2.4low
- Nick LodoloCIN3.1± 1.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
CIN
.664
OPS
.717
▶.709
.295
OBP
.319
▶.313
4.00
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.30
3.96
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.61
1.27
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.46
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
The One modelTossup
Tue, Jun 16NYM
Mets
35-43
vs52.1%CIN
CIN★
Reds
40-41
NYM 47.9%win prob52.1% CIN
CIN 1476 · NYM 1481Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
