MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DET

DET

30-42

HOU

33-41

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

26,632 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

54.3%

open 55.1% · -0.8

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
56.8%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.1%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.79

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

HOU vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.1± 2.9low
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.2± 2.5low

Hits

Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.3± 3.5high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

HOU

.712

OPS

.717

▶

.730

.316

OBP

.319

.318

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.93

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.95

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 9 · HOU 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	0	1	9
HOU	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.282	3	2	2	1	1	2	0
G. Torres2B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.234	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.296	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
D. DinglerC	.258	4	3	2	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.267	4	3	3	6	3	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.210	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
Z. McKinstry2B	.171	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. OutmanCF	.155	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
H. Lee2B	.225	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. JonesDH	.131	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		38	9	11	8	5	4	18

Player

.282

.280

.234

.296

.258

.267

.210

.171

.155

.225

.131

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. AndersonRP	2.2	2	1	1	2	5	59
J. WaguespackRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	13
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	28
W. VestRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	12
E. De JesusRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	10	142

Player

2.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PenaSS	.268	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.328	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.245	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. Paredes3B	.232	1	1	1	2	1	2	0
J. Altuve2B	.238	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.218	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.214	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. VazquezC	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.220	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. TengRP	3.1	6	5	5	2	9	81
S. OkertRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	1	1	0	2	2	32
J. MurrayRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	3	38
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	21
Team	9.0	11	9	8	4	18	180

Team

DET

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

HOU vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.