MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3STL

37-34

STL

39-31

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

26,973 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
56.3%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.3%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+143DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 38.6%

STL

no live price

Book	SD	STL	Best edge
DraftKings	+143★	-189	+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.3± 3.4low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.2low

Hits

Blaze JordanSTL
1.7± 0.8low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Blaze JordanSTL
3.3± 4.3low
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.8± 1.6high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.3± 2.1low
Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.7± 2.2low
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

STL

.652

OPS

.717

▶

.722

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.83

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.60

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.09

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

SD 0 · STL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.279	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.177	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Wagner3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.252	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Song2B	.178	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.162	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		27	0	1	0	0	1	9

Player

.279

.205

.177

.228

.226

.333

.252

.178

.162

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
L. GiolitoSP	5.0	7	3	3	3	2	85
K. HartRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	24
Team	8.0	8	3	3	3	4	120

Player

W. PeraltaRP

1.0

L. GiolitoSP

5.0

K. HartRP

2.0

Team

8.0

120

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.264	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.287	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. WalkerRF	.297	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. NootbaarLF	.257	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
M. WinnSS	.232	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. CrooksC	.214	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. Jordan1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.254	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		30	3	8	3	0	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	9.0	1	0	0	1	9	101
Team	9.0	1	0	0	1	9	101

Team

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

STL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.