Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 16, 2026

FINAL+3COL

COL

28-46

CHC

38-36

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

35,183 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 0.0 · +9.5

CHC no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
64.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.2%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.8± 2.8low
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.1± 1.8medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.4high
Willi CastroCOL
1.3± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
1.1± 1.6high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.3± 3.6high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.5± 3.7high
Cole CarriggCOL
2.3± 2.8low

RBIs

Cole CarriggCOL
1.0± 2.2low
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 3.2low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 3.0medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CHC

.732

OPS

.718

.731

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.333

4.59

Runs / G

4.50

4.59

5.59

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.26

1.53

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 5 · CHC 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	5
CHC	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.290	5	1	3	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.282	3	1	1	2	0	1	0
T. Rumfield1B	.275	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
H. GoodmanC	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.312	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. CarriggCF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. SullivanC	.218	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. TovarSS	.214	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Julien2B	.228	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. FreemanRF	.268	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	5	6	4	1	6	8

Player

.290

.282

.275

.251

.312

.233

.218

.214

.228

.244

.268

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FeltnerSP	4.2	6	2	2	3	7	104
B. CastanoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	16
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
V. VodnikRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	7	2	2	4	8	156

Player

R. FeltnerSP

4.2

104

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.276	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
A. Bregman3B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
M. Busch1B	.248	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. SuzukiRF	.256	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.220	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.257	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.232	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.175	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. ConfortoDH	.224	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	1	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	4.1	3	5	5	2	3	67
R. RolisonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	17
P. MatonRP	0.2	2	0	0	1	1	23
T. ThorntonRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	23
G. HollowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	6	5	5	6	8	148

Team

COL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.