MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

PIT

36-37

PregameWed, 9:40 PM EDT

ATH

36-36

ATS/PIT -1.5O/U/10ML/PIT-120

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

95 total idx

Oakland Coliseum run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

ATH -0.9 vs PIT -3.2 margin

ATH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

Line movement

7 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

ATH no-vig %

47.8%

open 47.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Braxton Ashcraft

SP · #35

5-3

W-L

3.30

ERA

1.10

WHIP

84.2

Last 3 starts

vsMIA-5.0 IP2 ER4 K

@ATLL(5-3)5.0 IP6 ER5 K

vsMINW(5-2)6.0 IP2 ER11 K

Home starter

Aaron Civale

SP · #45

5-2

W-L

4.20

ERA

1.47

WHIP

55.2

Last 3 starts

vsSEAL(5-2)4.0 IP7 ER2 K

@LAA-5.0 IP5 ER2 K

vsSFW(5-1)5.0 IP2 ER2 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 10

Money-120 / +100

Model edge

Win prob46% / 54%

LeanHome · 4pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesATH leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-120Bet PIT ML↗-120Bet PIT ML↗

+100Bet ATH ML↗+100Bet ATH ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 10Bet the total↗O/U 10Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

ATH vs PIT.

ATH is 6-4 recently; PIT is 2-8.

54.3%

model · ATH win prob

Recent form

ATH6–4-0.9
PIT2–8-3.2

Situational

ATH2d rest
PIT2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. ATH has 0 straight road games; PIT has 1.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.4pp

Players to watch

Nick KurtzATH
2.9total bases · ±3.4
Nick Kurtz · 2.9 TB · last-10 3.5 vs season 2.
Shea LangeliersATH
2.5total bases · ±2.6
Shea Langeliers · 2.5 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 2.2.
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.2total bases · ±3.0
Tyler Soderstrom · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.8.

Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1

ATH is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-15PIT @ ATH2–11

Line move

open +100→+100flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.4%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved

Player projections

ATH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
5.0± 3.5low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.1high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.9± 3.4high
Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.6high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ATH

.736

OPS

.717

▶

.752

.334

OBP

.319

.331

4.95

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.60

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.80

1.31

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelLean

Wed, Jun 17

PIT

Pirates

36-42

vs54.3%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

36-43

PIT 45.7%win prob54.3% ATH

ATH 1475 · PIT 1468Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics

The matchup, end-to-end.

Pick a side.

ATH vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

Closing-line value.

3 sub-models, blended.