Park factor
98 total idx
Busch Stadium run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
SD
SD
37-34
PregameWed, 2:15 PM EDT
STL
STL
39-31
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketBusch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Kyle Leahy
SP · #62
5-3
W-L
4.64
ERA
1.59
WHIP
52
K
64.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@MIN-5.0 IP4 ER5 K
vsCIN-4.0 IP3 ER1 K
vsCHC-4.1 IP1 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSTL leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
STL vs SD.
STL is 7-3 recently; SD is 5-5.
56.6%
model · STL win prob
Recent form
- STL7–3+2.7
- SD5–5-0.3
Situational
- STL2d rest
- SD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. STL has 0 straight road games; SD has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.8total bases · ±1.7
Alec Burleson · 2.8 TB · last-10 3.3 vs season 2.
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.6total bases · ±1.8
Jordan Walker · 2.6 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.2.
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.7total bases · ±1.8
Fernando Tatis Jr. · 1.7 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.3.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
STL is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-05-09STL @ SD2–4
- 2026-05-10STL @ SD2–3
- 2026-06-15SD @ STL0–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.3%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
56.3%
P(STL win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
56.3%
P(STL win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(STL win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
STL vs SD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 66 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dustin MaySTL5.7± 3.6low
- Michael KingSD5.2± 2.9low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.0± 3.2low
Hits
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.4± 0.8high
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1.3± 1.2high
- Samad TaylorSD1.3± 1.2low
Total bases
- Alec BurlesonSTL2.8± 1.7high
- Jordan WalkerSTL2.6± 1.8high
- Blaze JordanSTL2.5± 4.2low
RBIs
- Samad TaylorSD1.0± 1.8low
- Blaze JordanSTL1.0± 1.9low
- Jordan WalkerSTL1.0± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Griffin CanningSD3.8± 3.1low
- Matthew LiberatoreSTL2.7± 2.2low
- Yu DarvishSD2.6± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SD
league avg
STL
.650
OPS
.717
▶.722
.290
OBP
.319
▶.323
3.78
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.54
3.92
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.07
1.29
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.32
8.5
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelLean
Wed, Jun 17SD
Padres
38-35
vs56.7%STL
STL★
Cardinals
42-32
SD 43.3%win prob56.7% STL
STL 1521 · SD 1501Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
