Recent form
6-4
DET +2.4 vs HOU -0.6 margin
DET brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
DET
DET
30-42
PregameWed, 2:10 PM EDT
HOU
HOU
33-41
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Line movement
8 snapshots
HOU spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.0 · +0.5
HOU no-vig %
49.6%
open 50.0% · -0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Casey Mize
SP · #12
2-3
W-L
2.27
ERA
0.97
WHIP
49
K
47.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsLAA-4.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsCLEL(2-3)6.2 IP2 ER4 K
vsTOR-6.0 IP0 ER4 K
Home starter
Peter Lambert
SP · #38
5-4
W-L
3.47
ERA
1.21
WHIP
53
K
57.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAA-6.1 IP2 ER6 K
vsATHW(5-4)5.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsMILW(4-4)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money-112 / -108
Model edge
Win prob45% / 55%
LeanHome · 5pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesDET leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take HOU on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs DET.
HOU is 5-5 recently; DET is 6-4.
55.1%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU5–5-0.6
- DET6–4+2.4
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; DET has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Kai-Wei TengHOU3.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Kai-Wei Teng · 3.6 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 2.8.
- Dillon DinglerDET2.6total bases · ±3.4
Dillon Dingler · 2.6 TB · last-10 3 vs season 2.
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.4total bases · ±2.6
Yordan Alvarez · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.4.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
HOU is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15DET @ HOU9–3
Line move
open -110→-108toward DET
The market has moved 0.5pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.3%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
55.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.7%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.57 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalDET6.1± 2.9low
- Peter LambertHOU5.3± 2.5low
- Spencer ArrighettiHOU5.2± 2.5low
Hits
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.4± 1.0high
- Dillon DinglerDET1.3± 1.4high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Dillon DinglerDET2.6± 3.4high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.4± 2.6high
- Christian WalkerHOU1.9± 1.6high
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET1.0± 1.6high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.9± 2.2high
- Christian WalkerHOU0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Mike BurrowsHOU3.6± 2.6low
- Framber ValdezDET2.8± 2.6low
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU2.8± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
HOU
.712
OPS
.717
▶.730
.316
OBP
.319
.318
4.07
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.48
3.93
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.95
1.28
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.44
8.3
K / 9
8.5
▶8.6
The One modelLean
Wed, Jun 17DET
Tigers
33-44
vs55.1%HOU
HOU★
Astros
38-46
DET 44.9%win prob55.1% HOU
HOU 1485 · DET 1474Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
