Recent form
5-5
CHC -0.8 vs COL -0.8 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
COL
COL
27-46
PregameWed, 8:05 PM EDT
CHC
CHC
38-35
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Line movement
9 snapshots
CHC spread
PK
open PK
Total
O/U 0.0
open O/U 0.0
CHC no-vig %
63.1%
open 63.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Sean Sullivan
SP · #45
0-0
W-L
0.00
ERA
0.67
WHIP
2
K
3.0
IP
Last 1 starts
@ATH-3.0 IP0 ER2 K
Home starter
Javier Assad
SP · #72
4-1
W-L
3.99
ERA
1.02
WHIP
24
K
38.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFW(4-1)6.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsSF-6.1 IP0 ER5 K
@CHW-2.0 IP1 ER1 K
Vegas line
SpreadOFF
TotalO/U 0
Money+159 / -194
Model edge
Win prob31% / 70%
LeanHome · 20pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesCHC lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take CHC on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs COL.
CHC is 5-5 recently; COL is 3-7.
69.5%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC5–5-0.8
- COL3–7-0.8
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- COL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; COL has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3.1total bases · ±3.7
Pete Crow-Armstrong · 3.1 TB · last-10 3.9 vs season 1.8.
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.5total bases · ±3.7
Hunter Goodman · 2.5 TB · last-10 2.8 vs season 2.
- Willi CastroCOL2.0total bases · ±3.0
Willi Castro · 2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
CHC is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-09CHC @ COL3–7
- 2026-06-10CHC @ COL2–3
- 2026-06-11CHC @ COL9–3
- 2026-06-15COL @ CHC4–5
Line move
open -194→-194flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
67.1%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
66.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.2%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.1%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.85 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs COL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.4± 2.8medium
- Edward CabreraCHC4.9± 2.7low
- Michael LorenzenCOL4.1± 1.8medium
Hits
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.6± 1.4high
- Willi CastroCOL1.3± 1.4high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL1.1± 1.6high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3.1± 3.7high
- Cole CarriggCOL2.6± 2.7low
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.5± 3.7high
RBIs
- Cole CarriggCOL1.1± 2.3low
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.8± 1.4high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.5± 3.2low
- Michael LorenzenCOL3.7± 3.0medium
- Colin ReaCHC3.3± 2.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
COL
league avg
CHC
.730
OPS
.717
.726
.322
OBP
.319
▶.332
4.56
Runs / G
4.50
4.58
5.63
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.22
1.54
WHIP
1.31
▶1.24
7.4
K / 9
8.5
▶8.0
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Jun 17COL
Rockies
28-54
vs69.5%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
39-44
COL 30.5%win prob69.5% CHC
CHC 1480 · COL 1383Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
