Recent form
6-4
MIL +2.0 vs CLE -0.9 margin
MIL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers
CLE
CLE
39-33
PregameWed, 7:40 PM EDT
MIL
MIL
43-26
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketAmerican Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Line movement
3 snapshots
MIL spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
MIL no-vig %
53.2%
open 53.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Gavin Williams
SP · #32
9-3
W-L
3.32
ERA
1.10
WHIP
99
K
86.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYY-5.0 IP3 ER5 K
@NYYW(9-3)5.1 IP3 ER6 K
vsWSHW(8-3)7.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Brandon Sproat
SP · #23
1-4
W-L
5.70
ERA
1.48
WHIP
57
K
60.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATH-6.0 IP1 ER3 K
@COL-5.0 IP3 ER2 K
@HOUL(1-4)4.1 IP5 ER4 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+104 / -126
Model edge
Win prob36% / 64%
LeanHome · 14pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCLE wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Place a bet
Take MIL on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
MIL vs CLE.
MIL is 6-4 recently; CLE is 4-6.
64.1%
model · MIL win prob
Recent form
- MIL6–4+2.0
- CLE4–6-0.9
Situational
- MIL3d rest
- CLE4d rest
- -1.0d differential
CLE has 1 more rest day. MIL has 0 straight road games; CLE has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jackson ChourioMIL3.5total bases · ±3.4
Jackson Chourio · 3.5 TB · last-10 4.2 vs season 2.5.
- Jake BauersMIL2.1total bases · ±2.3
Jake Bauers · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
- Brice TurangMIL1.9total bases · ±2.5
Brice Turang · 1.9 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.7.
Line move
open -126→-126flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
63.9%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
62.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.5%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.5%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.04 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 88 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.6± 3.1low
- Gavin WilliamsCLE7.0± 3.5low
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.4± 5.2low
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.7± 1.4high
- Christian YelichMIL1.2± 0.8high
- William ContrerasMIL1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Jackson ChourioMIL3.5± 3.4high
- Jake BauersMIL2.1± 2.3high
- Brice TurangMIL1.9± 2.5high
RBIs
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.1± 1.5high
- Jake BauersMIL1.1± 1.5high
- Andrew VaughnMIL0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Robert GasserMIL3.3± 3.0low
- Slade CecconiCLE2.8± 2.5low
- Brandon SproatMIL2.7± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CLE
league avg
MIL
.688
OPS
.717
▶.734
.317
OBP
.319
▶.340
3.96
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.29
3.73
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.43
1.26
WHIP
1.31
▶1.21
9.2
K / 9
8.5
▶9.8
The One modelEdge
Wed, Jun 17CLE
Guardians
44-40
vs64.2%MIL
MIL★
Brewers
48-27
CLE 35.8%win prob64.2% MIL
MIL 1581 · CLE 1517Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
