Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR
TOR
34-38
PregameWed, 6:45 PM EDT
BOS
BOS
29-40
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Line movement
5 snapshots
BOS spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 9.5
BOS no-vig %
53.2%
open 53.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Max Scherzer
SP · #31
1-4
W-L
10.23
ERA
1.73
WHIP
14
K
22.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPHIL(1-4)3.1 IP5 ER4 K
vsCLEL(1-3)2.1 IP7 ER0 K
@ARI-6.0 IP2 ER1 K
Home starter
Jake Bennett
SP · #64
1-2
W-L
5.28
ERA
1.50
WHIP
8
K
15.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@TBL(1-2)5.0 IP4 ER4 K
vsTBL(1-1)5.1 IP4 ER1 K
vsHOUW(1-0)5.0 IP1 ER3 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 9.5
Money+104 / -126
Model edge
Win prob45% / 55%
LeanHome · 5pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesBOS wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
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Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs TOR.
BOS is 4-6 recently; TOR is 5-5.
54.7%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS4–6+0.3
- TOR5–5-1.0
Situational
- BOS3d rest
- TOR3d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; TOR has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Willson ContrerasBOS3.0total bases · ±3.1
Willson Contreras · 3 TB · last-10 3.6 vs season 2.
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.0total bases · ±2.5
Ceddanne Rafaela · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.7.
- Ernie ClementTOR2.0total bases · ±2.3
Ernie Clement · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.8.
Line move
open -126→-126flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.5%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
54.8%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.3%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 91 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.9low
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 3.9low
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.7± 3.7low
Hits
- Willson ContrerasBOS1.4± 1.3high
- Ernie ClementTOR1.3± 0.9high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.2± 1.2high
Total bases
- Willson ContrerasBOS3.0± 3.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.0± 2.5high
- Ernie ClementTOR2.0± 2.3high
RBIs
- Willson ContrerasBOS0.9± 1.1high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS0.7± 1.3high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR4.2± 4.0low
- Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR3.2± 3.3low
- Jake BennettBOS3.0± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
BOS
.701
OPS
.717
.698
.314
OBP
.319
.314
4.03
Runs / G
◀
4.50
3.97
4.09
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.92
1.28
WHIP
1.31
1.29
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelLean
Wed, Jun 17TOR
Blue Jays
33-51
vs54.7%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
29-50
TOR 45.3%win prob54.7% BOS
BOS 1469 · TOR 1459Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
