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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
HOU

HOU

14-21

3
1
BOS

BOS

13-21

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
35,406 attended

Line movement

59 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

61.6%

open 59.3% · +2.3

-1.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL66.2%55.3%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 59.7%May 3, 12 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 3 · BOS 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
HOU00000100023
BOS00001000001

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -181

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 3–1.

HOU +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
HOU14-21
3
1
BOS13-21
HOU14-21·BOS13-21
HOU

HOU

14-21

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-33000021
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-55010002
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44010012
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-33120011
SPRINT25.920
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.867
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33001010
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
3-55032001
SPRINT29.395
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44020001
SPRINT22.90
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
0-11000000
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb3B
0-11000001
D. JohnsonD. JohnsonCF
0-11000000
Team10-34343103059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BoltonC. Bolton★SP
2.1400130
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
3.2211251
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0100010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0100010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
2.0100110
Team10.09114111
BOS

BOS

13-21

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55121101
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
3-44030011
SPRINT26.838
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-55010000
SPRINT27.457
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000023
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-22000011
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.560
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44010002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-11010000
SPRINT26.123
Team9-36361911411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.0300130
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
0.2100100
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1311010
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
0.2000110
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.1100020
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0100020
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0121200
Team10.01032590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Bolton
    61 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      36%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      5%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    59 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·85.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      2%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      50%·84.3 mph·17% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.7 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Okert
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      42%·82.1 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    70 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      24%·91.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      19%·81.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      19%·75.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.7 mph·11% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·81.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      68%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      42%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      42%·82.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      16%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      47%·98.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      54%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Moran
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • CH
      45%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·78.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

3

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

May 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS3
May 2HOUHOU6@BOSBOS3
May 3HOUHOU3@BOSBOS1today

Season series

HOU wins series 5-1

Mar 31BOSBOS1@HOUHOU8
Apr 1BOSBOS2@HOUHOU9
Apr 1BOSBOS4@HOUHOU6
May 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS3
May 2HOUHOU6@BOSBOS3
May 3HOUHOU3@BOSBOS1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+14940%
BOSBOS-18164%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 59 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 39pp · Top 10th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

A. Blubaugh

A. Blubaugh

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat BOS 3-1. Altuve's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (39pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

BOS vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 10th Inning · 1-1
+39pp→ 72% WP

Altuve · grounded into double play, shortstop to catcher to third, Shewmake to second, Paredes out at third, Alvarez out at home.

HOUBottom 10th Inning · 3-1
+33pp→ 67% WP

Abreu · walked.

HOUBottom 10th Inning · 3-1
+31pp→ 100% WP

Rafaela · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Mayer out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
HOU00000100023
BOS00001000001

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Duran 1

1
0

Inn 6

Matthews 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

2
0

Inn 10

Smith 2

HOU
BOS

Play-by-play · 667 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  2. B10

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  3. B10

    Rafaela grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Mayer out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

    −31pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  5. B10

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  6. B10

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  7. B10

    Mayer hit by pitch.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

    +3pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  9. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  10. B10

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Marcelo Mayer

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  11. B10

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  12. B10

    Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice bunt to third, Abreu to second, Anthony to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

    −5pp

  13. B10

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  14. B10

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  15. B10

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  16. B10

    Abreu walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

    −33pp

  17. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  18. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  19. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  20. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  21. B10

    Bryan Abreu pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  22. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  23. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  24. T10

    ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  25. T10

    Smith singled to left, Altuve scored and Shewmake scored, Matthews thrown out at home.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  26. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

  27. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 1

  28. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 1

  29. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 1

  30. T10

    Zack Kelly pitches to Cam Smith

    · ·

    HOU 3·BOS 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

1

10

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

12

TB

15

0

HR

1

5

BB

4

9

K

11

21

LOB

24

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·HOU +149/BOS -181

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    59.1%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 2, 26sim 97
    44
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 97
    181
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 96
    263
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 95
    263
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    262
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs