MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Baty grounded into double play, second to first, Melendez out at second on runner's inteference. → win prob 46→61% SEA

BOT 9THTied

NYM

26-33

SEA

31-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 982 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 90-20 outs

Pitcher· NYM

D. Williams

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· SEA

J. Rodriguez

0-3

Live · model leanBot 9thPolls every 30s

54.2%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 60.6% SEA

NYM 2 · 2 SEA

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 9

away leadsSEA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipSEATop 8th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 61% WP
Baty · grounded into double play, second to first, Melendez out at second on runner's inteference.
Lead flipSEABottom 7th Inning · 2-2
+26pp→ 62% WP
Naylor · homered to right (373 feet).
Lead flipNYMTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+20pp→ 67% WP
Semien · homered to left (389 feet).
ClutchNYMTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 48% WP
Young · homered to center (424 feet).
SwingSEABottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+15pp→ 67% WP
Emerson · homered to right (368 feet).

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.18

A. Warren

1-1 · 1.40 ERA

E. Hancock

4-2 · 2.78 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

56.3%

open 55.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.3%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

66.6%

+6.7ppvs pre-game · SEA favored

Calibrated · at ~64% reads, home has won 65% (173)

Leverage

±13.0

pp · next play

peak · 100/100

Tied · 9th or later · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.20

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SEA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.5± 2.9low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.7± 2.4low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 1.0high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.9± 2.7high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.6± 2.5high
Luke RaleySEA
1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
1.1± 1.3high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.7± 1.1high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.0± 3.3low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

NYM

Mets

28-36

vs60.6%SEA

SEA★

Mariners

35-36

NYM 39.4%win prob60.6% SEA

SEA 1519 · NYM 1474Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Benge★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	7.1
SPRINT28.586
B. Bichette★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.1
SPRINT25.716
J. Soto★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0
SPRINT25.513
J. Young★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	9.7
SPRINT27.354
A.J. Ewing★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.8
M. Melendez★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.1
B. Baty★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	9.2
M. Semien★2B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	18.0
SPRINT28.175
L. Torrens★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.3
Team	2-28	28	2	2	2	2	0	10	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Benge★RF

0-4

7.1

B. Bichette★3B

0-4

3.1

J. Soto★LF

0-3

3.0

J. Young★1B

1-3

9.7

A.J. Ewing★CF

0-3

4.8

M. Melendez★DH

0-2

6.1

B. Baty★3B

0-3

9.2

M. Semien★2B

1-3

18.0

L. Torrens★C

0-3

1.3

Team

2-28

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
A. Warren★RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2
S. ManaeaRP	5.0	1	1	1	1	4	1	2.2
B. RaleyRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	1	17.6
L. WeaverRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.1

Team	8.0	3	2	2	1	6	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

A. Warren★RP

1.0

0.2

S. ManaeaRP

5.0

2.2

B. RaleyRP

0.2

17.6

L. WeaverRP

1.1

6.1

Team

8.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J.P. Crawford★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	4.7
SPRINT25.513
J. Rodriguez★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.3
SPRINT28.688
J. Naylor★1B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	24.3
SPRINT23.81
R. Arozarena★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.1
L. Raley★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3.3
C. Young★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	9.7
SPRINT27.662
R. Refsnyder★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
M. Garver★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.9
C. Emerson★3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	10.5
P. Wisdom3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.7
D. CanzoneDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0

Team	3-26	26	2	3	2	2	1	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player